Oct. 24: Stock Market Crash

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi ralok_j,

The story from the newspaper which was written in March of this year, said that everybody recognizd the fact that the economy was going to be in trouble as the opposition was trying to put McCain on the same page as Bush.

It's ironic that the public evidence of the downturn occurred a couple of weeks before the elections. The bourse on Wall Street had to be helped to try and hide what everybody knew until after the election. Consequently, after the election, the Dow dropped nearly 10% in two days and the initial 'bailout package' is almost all gone.

We've just seen the unemployment figures come out, Ford is sending home 10% of its' white collar staff..... let the fun begin...

It's important for everyone to remember that this problem was caused a long time ago. You can mark my words. In January when things are worse, the public will think that it's Obamas' fault.

Between you and me, just a question.

Could it be that Obama was set up to be the 'fall guy'? After all, the private sector didn't help in McCains campaign, he used public funds and Obama managed to raise from the public AND big business the largest amount ever for a political campaign.

This could be worth looking out for...

Best regards,

Steve

Funny you throw the thought out there about Obama being the fall guy. First, let me state that I did not vote for Obama and was against a few things he was promising in his campaign. Now, with that said:

For a few weeks I believed Obama would win. Yes, he is a passionate speaker. But I also sensed that McCain appeared to given up around mid October. My belief is that McCain realized that the global economy is heading towards failure and it wouldn't matter who is in the White House because that person will be viewed as the cause.

Now, I hope I'm wrong. I seriously hope that Obama makes the right decisions to avoid a failure of our economic system. I actually feel bad for him because he is taking office during one of worst economic cycles.

[ralok_j]

Interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-qufOWDawU

[eugene_vn]

I have to agree with mmerlinn on this one - the only reasonable explanation for the October 24 event was a massive intervention by Bush's PPT (Plunge Protection Team). A glance at the recent intraday Dow levels (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...freq=7&time=18) shows that 8200 has acted as a price floor for the past couple of weeks. While it's not unusual for the Dow to consistently bounce off the same general level, when all the technical, momentum, and fundamental indicators pointed (way) down like on Oct 24 and 8200 still supported prices, it quickly took on the characteristics of a mandated level below which prices would not be allowed to fall.

Ironically, had the market been allowed to turn down hard on Oct 24, it would have quickly rallied back into the 9000-10,000 range anyway. So it's not all that unusual to be sitting at 9200 at the Thursday close. However, the price to pay for the PPT intervention is going to be (as mmerlinn suggests) an even greater devaluation of the dollar and an even deeper real bottom when the PPT finally allows the market to crash (or loses its ability to intervene further).

There is a good video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5oCPcB3Z-8 which shows the historical "real" value of the Dow (i.e. priced in ounces of gold), which is one way of peeling away the machinations of the Fed in terms of devaluing the dollar in order to make the stock market "appear" to be rising based on higher nominal values of the Dow. According to this analysis (by Robert Prechter - www.elliottwave.com), we have probably only seen around a third of the bear market that is still unfolding.

One things to look for in Friday's trading is that it appears the market may be tracing out a "head and shoulders" pattern at the 9100-9200 level. According to classical technical analysis, if prices fall below the right shoulder, they should go way, way down. With the PPT still active it's hard to know whether normal market forces will be allowed to prevail. We will see. . .

[Antztudio]

Just wondering how you feel now that Oct 24th came.....and went....And NO crash

[dagon]

just wanted to bump this to the top for the people. WAKE UP!!!

[TAXMASTER]

just keep in mind that 5 out of the top 7 percentage gains on the dow occurred during the great depression. we are going to see wild gains and losses until a bottom is reached.

Namaste'

[eugene_vn]

According to Elliott Wave analysis, the stock market is due to reach a temporary bottom some time this coming week (at around Dow 6800-7200). The next few months should be a volatile climb back into the 9000-10,000 area.

Following that, though, is where things will get very interesting. The whole time frame from around Obama's oath of office to summer 2009 should see the biggest slide to date in the world stock markets. The U.S. Dow is likely to reach new lows in the 3000-4000 area by summer, and that timing happens to line up with the many reports coming in that the US dollar will be scrapped for a new currency also in the summer months.

Hopefully the winter bounce in the stock market will allow anyone who has yet to liquidate their retirement plan (which will be vaporized by summer 2009) to do so at a decent value and exchange it for useful commodities such as food, water, emergency power, shelter, gold & silver, etc.

[Humble Janitor]

Originally Posted by hueyii

I predict that it will snow in the northeast united states in the next 30 days. Get your warm clothes out of the mothballs!

Here's something that I don't mind.