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Old 02-07-2009, 11:18 AM   #1
Antaletriangle
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Exclamation The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

http://www.rense.com/general85/des.htm


The BDI Index Points To
Worldwide Disaster
By James Wickstrom
2-7-9

Please be made aware that I am not interested in your feedback or dribble to me on the information you are about to read. Just understand and ponder the information and how it is going to relate to you, your family, your loved ones, your friends, and to your Nation as a whole.

Most of the masses haven't pulled their heads out of their rectums yet as to their Super Bowl fantasy. Well, REALITY is about ready to kick them in the ass like they have never been kicked before, and for many, will never be kicked again.

The scope as to the gutting out, sell-out, and vicious TREASON by the political and religious elements (note it is plural) of the United States has been the greatest in all of modern history. Don't let your eyes deceive you as to what you are going to read.

John Wayne is not going to come out of his grave and save you or this nation. Tinker Bell is not going to show up with her magic wand and save the day. It is time to suck it up and face the music of forthcoming violence and suffering like never seen before in the United States and throughout the world.

For over 30 years I have been ostracized, ridiculed, scoffed at, thrown in prison, had my home destroyed, and looked upon as an outcast of this Nation. The same Nation I went to war for during Vietnam. If you have one ounce of reasoning and common sense left in your head, what you are going read is going to send you for a jolt. Please share this with all who you feel would like to know and understand.

Thank you.
Dr. James P. Wickstrom, D. Litt.

http://posse-comitatususa.blogspot.com
www.jameswickstrom.com

Subject: Baltic Dry Index
(Shipping situation that effects all of us)

Follow-up letter on BDI Video

An Email Received On the Baltic Dry Index Video:

I've been discussing the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) with everyone I can for months now. I started following it in June of 2008. It's not a traded index so no one profits from the index itself, which makes it virtually manipulation proof. It is what it is and that doesn't bode well for any of us.

OK, we have 26 shipping routes around the world that the BDI looks at. Shipping stocks are slaves to the BDI. Capesize Ships (over 100,000 tons) make up only 10% of the World Fleet but move 62% of Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 35/40, China 20, Brazil 40-50, S. Africa 1-7). Panamax Ships (60,000-80,000 tons) make up 19% of the world fleet and move 20% of the Dry Bulk Traffic (at a given time Australia has 40-60, China 20-35, Brazil 3-12, S Africa 0-1). There is a third and fourth ship size but they are quite small and they aren't moving either.

If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day.

If the BDI is wrong it will be an historic first. The BDI is used by bankers, financial experts, brokers, traders and everyone in high-end finance to assess the global financial condition and the availability of products worldwide.

The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down. NOTHING is moving. Because this spells disaster for a country that produces little and imports everything I have been intently blogging about the subject and asking people to view a short video I have posted (8 minutes) on:

http://thegreendragon.ning.com/video...tical-you-must

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world. It cannot be cheated or manipulated because it deals with actual products that are either actively being shipped, or are on docks awaiting to be shipped as Freight On Board (FOB). As the chart below proves, back in June, 2008 the BDI stood at a reasonably healthy 11,600. As of today, the BDI has plummeted to 791. That's about a 94% drop in goods actually being shipped worldwide.

This portends unprecedented disaster around the world, especially as it relates to food. Products are simply not being shipped. They aren't being shipped because there aren't any orders for them. This will translate into massive, unprecedented unemployment worldwide and, as things get worse, massive food shortages.

I have urgently asked each of you to stock up on dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, beans, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will
have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses. Many of you laughed me off as some sort of kook for making those suggestions, with some of you going so far as to call me "chicken little, the sky is falling." Well, it appears I'm having the last laugh.

I correctly forecast the economic meltdown which took place in September. For over a year prior to that meltdown, I warned it was coming and, in March of 2008, I actually pinpointed the month the meltdown would take place, warning you it would happen in September. It did. Now I am once again warning you about food shortages because the facts are irrefutable. The BDI proves that goods are not being shipped.

There has been a 94% reduction in shipped goods since June of this year and it is only going to get worse. If you do not have food stored up for your family, you will starve to death. If you do not own guns and ammunition, any food you DO have will be stolen by roving bands of savages who are trying not to starve to death.

The social breakdown that is coming is unparalleled in modern history. We are going to suffer on an order of magnitude greater than folks suffered during the Great Depression. Please, I urge you, prepare. There are only a few precious months left before it all goes to hell. So, as I said, I have been e-mailing everyone I can think of and here's a very interesting email I received back from a friend tonight. He's a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver and designs and builds large power plants for a living.


Hi,

Quite the contrary, I'm well acquainted with the Baltic Dry Index. My brother is a mid-to high-level executive with a logistics/cargo firm. His company (as well as all other shipping companies) have seen huge dives in the amount of business they do. The main point that many people do not understand is that without trade between states and nations no one prospers!

It's always tempting to say "screw the third world countries and screw the Chinese with all the **** they send over here! Let's shut our borders down and not import anything!" But the reality is that no country that practices such Draconian protectionist policies ever lasts very long. So with that, it is of huge concern to you, me, and everyone else "in the know" when the BDI drops so drastically! The whole world is truly tied at the hip, as the saying goes!

Brother, I'm on board with you 100%! I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to send me the link (which I will watch by this weekend). You hit the nail on the head in that 98% of the people in this country have not one clue what the BDI is, what it indicates; nothing!

The truly sad thing, to me at least, is that the masses of "useful idiots" (as Lenin called them) have no clue what is going on around them, yet they so eagerly and boisterously vote! I'm afraid that this country is going to have to go through a considerable amount of pain before the uneducated, ignorant (and I won't say stupid because they simply have not been taught) masses "get it".

I am a senior level electrical engineer for a large engineering and construction firm in Denver. I design and build large power plants for a living. Without giving the whole story of my career, believe me when I say that in the next few years this country will see rolling blackouts (and that's not taking into account another terrorist attack on our country!). If the people in this country knew what I know first-hand about our power grid and the condition of our (very old!) power plants in this country, they would probably **** themselves in fear!

The only surprise to me is that the blackouts didn't happen this past summer, but that was due to 2008 being a cooler year than expected. The bottom line is, our power grid (and for that matter, much of the infrastructure in this country) is tapped out and actually older than its expected life. And yet, our wonderful federal government, elected by us "useful idiots", continues to spend, spend, spend like drunken sailors. Why? Well, because that's what we've "always" done! It sickens me!

Take a look at www.chrismartenson.com

This fellow has his head screwed on straight!

Take it from me, I build power plants for a living. But I still have a basement full of not just guns, ammo, and food, but of fuel! White gas, propane bottle's, even sterno & alcohol type cans. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already, STOCK UP on a fuel supply, at least so that you can cook and have some modest heat if you don't have a fireplace! Consider what you have and ask yourself if you have enough to get you through a month, 2 months? Three? God Bless Sam's Club for carrying Coleman fuel and propane and such...

I'll share more of my knowledge (limited though it is) with you later on.

Peace be with you brother. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst!


XXXXXXX

Believe or don't, the choice is yours but at the very least I suggest you start doing the research on this subject or you may be starving in a few short months.
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Old 02-07-2009, 04:09 PM   #2
Dantheman62
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

wow,hmmmm I wonder if there's a chart or daily index to follow on the BDI
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Old 02-07-2009, 04:14 PM   #3
Antaletriangle
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

This seems to be a chart/index.
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates
http://www.investmenttools.com/futur..._dry_index.htm


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4...ade-sinks.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7217569
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Old 02-07-2009, 04:40 PM   #4
Dantheman62
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Thanks, that first link is great, and if you read some of the stuff below the graphs, you see both good and bad. It will be nice to check this again in about 3 or4 months.
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Old 02-07-2009, 04:48 PM   #5
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Yeah i agree-if you scroll down on all of the individual graphs you can see the large, general decline over the past year.I'll keep looking in on it.
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Old 02-07-2009, 05:02 PM   #6
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Exclamation Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Looks like the shelves will start to empty soon
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Old 02-22-2009, 02:48 PM   #7
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

thanks for this, I had heard about it, but now I can see the graphs.
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Old 02-22-2009, 03:01 PM   #8
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

It looks like the numbers looked around 2001-03. If that's the case, I can understand why most people are not concerned (not saying they shouldn't be) - but I personally experienced no shortages in 2001-03. Just a thought about the genpub.
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Old 02-22-2009, 03:03 PM   #9
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Uh huh. Now add to this little malaise the fact that up to a quarter of all food in the USA is about to face little or no water, you have starvation on an epic scale in the wind.

Stock up folks, because if this goes bad, it'll go bad over night and with devastating consequences.
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Old 02-22-2009, 05:24 PM   #10
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Oh, while I'm thinking of it. The square foot gardener dude says seeds are good for at least 5 years, so don't worry about whether they're only good for a year or so.
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Old 02-23-2009, 08:28 PM   #11
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Question Seattle tells dockers: Go home

Seattle tells dockers: Go home

By Martin Rushmere
San Francisco
23 February 2009

SOURCE: http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured...?article=18494

With horrendous drops in ocean and air cargo shipments thro-ugh US ports and airports, a previously unthinkable strategy is being tried to save money and ride out the worst trade recession in 40 years.

At the same time authorities are trying to soften the effects as much as possible.

On the West Coast, the port of Seattle has been the first to try to stem its tide of red ink that officials say will lead to a US $9 million budget deficit this year.

The port has taken the drastic step of sending workers home. The 800 non-union staff have been ordered to take two weeks unpaid holiday, expected to save $3 million. Another 110 vacant jobs have been frozen, saving $2 million - but which is likely to be offset by $2 million in health-care increases for existing workers.

Container volumes at Seattle dropped by 13.6 percent in 2008, with December notching up a 27 percent slump, while this year the forecast is of another fall of between five and 10 percent. Next door, Tacoma posted a 3.3 percent decline for the year while Oregon's Portland port recorded a six percent volume reduction, with December declining 15 percent.
The real test for Seattle's cost reductions lies ahead - persuading the monolithic dockers' trade union to cut back. Chief executive Tay Yo****ani has asked for union leaders to follow his example, which is likely to lead to silence and then lengthy negotiations before anything is done.

The two biggest ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have so far kept quiet and observers say the reason is simple - they are very nervous about approaching the dockers and are waiting to see what happens at Seattle. Even if the California ports also put staff on unpaid leave, this will do no more than win a couple of months' grace.

A proposal to offer a $10 per TEU bonus for bringing new business has already been quietly forgotten, because business has slipped so much while other ports have complained.

Officially, Los Angeles expects container volumes to fall about six percent this year, about the same as last year. Analysts, however, are saying that a 10 percent drop in volumes is more likely.

Long Beach suffered an 11 percent year-on-year loss of volume in 2008, which surprised even the most pessimistic forecasters. No predictions are being made about this year.

And it does not get any better. Traders are wincing at the National Retail Fed-eration's forecast of a 12 percent fall in container volumes through all US ports in the first half of this year, year-on-year, - the lowest level in five years. This forecast is much worse than expected just three months ago. February's volumes are expected to be 18 percent worse, year-on-year.
Los Angeles airport, the West Coast's main air hub, suffered an unheard of 14 percent decline in air cargo for 2008 to 1.7 million tonnes. Its woes have been matched to varying degrees all the way through the three West Coast states.

Japan Air Lines is dropping one of its five weekly flights to Los Angeles from March, the second service cut this year. In part, this is due to JAL's own problems, which has led to the seven flights from Narita to New York, one via Chicago, being discontinued. Nippon Cargo has taken some advantage by restoring its direct service to JFK, discontinued last year because of high fuel prices.

Nationally, air cargo in the US fell 17 percent in December on the back of a frightening 30 percent drop in the transpacific market, the worst month ever reported by the International Air Transport Association for any market.

So nervous are the authorities and major traders that such trends are being shoved out of the public eye, to stop any further erosion of consumer confidence.

When the economic devastation is over, now being seen as end-2010 at the earliest, the US will be even more dependant on Asia, especially China.

According to economic and forecasting company PIERS, the transpacific trade will account for 78 percent of imports by 2010, up from 75 percent in 2008. China's share will rise from 64 to 69 percent. For US exports, 60 percent will go to Asia in 2010, from 57 percent last year, while China's share of exports, which fell in 2007, will grow to 39 percent.

At the same time, there will be fewer foreign companies dealing with the US, because so many will be forced out of business, according to business analysis group Panjiva.

The number of companies shipping to US customers shrank 13 percent to 156,000 at the end of 2008 from October 2007. Five percent of that decline came from November to December 2008. Twelve percent of the companies dealing with the US moved 50 percent or less in the fourth quarter of 2008 than they had shipped in the fourth quarter of 2007.

SOURCE: http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured...?article=18494

Last edited by peaceandlove; 02-23-2009 at 08:47 PM. Reason: Pasting complete article: subscription needed to view.
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Old 02-24-2009, 01:26 AM   #12
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

I think there is a bit of a disconnect in my mind between the BDI and actual containers or shipping at docs. The BDI is down in the 90%, but the actual amount in at the various ports tend to show drops each month of 15 to 22% (from the previous year, I'm assuming).

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Old 02-26-2009, 04:39 AM   #13
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Default Japan's exports nearly halve in one year

Japan's exports nearly halve in one year

Last Updated: 10:34AM GMT 25 Feb 2009

Japan's exports nearly halved in January, with record drops in shipments to the United States, Europe and the rest of Asia pointing to a deepening recession across much of the world.

Excerpt:
Quote:
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Monday of a prolonged recession in one of Japan's major markets, while President Barack Obama, while positive longer term, told Congress there were no quick fixes for the economy.
Video and Article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4802905/Japans-exports-nearly-halve-in-one-year.html
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Old 02-26-2009, 04:54 AM   #14
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Question No more water for California farmers

No more water for California farmers

By Dairy Herd staff | Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Farmers in California are reeling after an announcement Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation that no water is available for agriculture use, the result of a worsening drought.

San Joaquin Valley farmers will be hit hard, as the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation supplies more than 80 percent of the water to the valley. Farms supplied water by the state will still receive 15 percent of their normal deliveries.

Article Continues: http://www.dairyherd.com/news_editor...675&ed_id=8220
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Old 02-26-2009, 06:33 AM   #15
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Quote:
I think there is a bit of a disconnect in my mind between the BDI and actual containers or shipping at docs. The BDI is down in the 90%, but the actual amount in at the various ports tend to show drops each month of 15 to 22% (from the previous year, I'm assuming).
That's probably a bit of an understatement. The Baltic Dry Index provides "an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea."

The price of shipping is down because demand is down, and because the cost of fuel is down - making it possible for shippers to offer lower prices in a highly competitive market. Demand doesn't have to drop much below capacity for a "buyer's market" to result - resulting in a dramatic drop in shipping prices from the situation not long ago when there were not enough ships available to move the goods companies wanted to ship.

If you want to know the actual volume of goods shipped, the BDI isn't particularly useful.

From Wikipedia (link above)

Quote:
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic — it takes two years to build a new ship, and ships are too expensive to take out of circulation the way airlines park unneeded jets in the California desert. So marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. in other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..."[6] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, crude oil, metallic ores, and grains.
Some of the articles quoted in earlier posts in this thread do not provide a valid analysis of the meaning of the BDI. This could be either due to honest misunderstanding or deliberate misrepresentation. Which is the case? I have no idea.

Last edited by Jnana; 02-26-2009 at 06:50 AM.
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Old 02-26-2009, 08:16 AM   #16
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Hi Jnana,

I think what you're saying is exactly what the others are saying, that the index, although treating the price of moving goods, also gives an indication as to how much goods are being transported. Lots of goods on the ships, higher the price, fewer goods, lower price - supply and demand, nothing too complicated.

I think what wasn't made clear was the reason why the goods are not being shipped. One could be forgiven in thinking that it is because of a problem in the shipping lines.

Not at all.

The problem is that letters of credit are not being released.

When a company sends cargos abroad they ask for a letter of credit which is issued from the purchasers' bank. That way the exporter can be garanteed payment when the goods arrive.

A letter of credit is only issued by a bank if the buyer is financially sound or if the cargo is worth 'the risk'. When the goods arrive, the purchaser confirms to their bank that they have received the goods and the bank pays the sum.

As the banks are not willing to supply credit the trade stops. Here in Brazil the price of meat has dropped by 50% because the suppliers of meat can't export their products and have to sell them on the internal market (good for us consumers). However, countries like Russia and the US, which depend heavily on imported products, this can and probably will aggravate the already current economical crisis, as they will deplete their stocks which in turn will raise the prices - supply and demand - and then we know what comes next...

Soon I see a sort of migration of people, the more able ones will move to countries where their money will buy more (George Green in Ecuador, for example) and the less able will move to other region in their country to move back home with families etc. to make ends meet.

Then it's a case of buckling down and riding out the storm.

Best regards,

Steve


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jnana View Post
That's probably a bit of an understatement. The Baltic Dry Index provides "an assessment of the price of moving major raw materials by sea."

The price of shipping is down because demand is down, and because the cost of fuel is down - making it possible for shippers to offer lower prices in a highly competitive market. Demand doesn't have to drop much below capacity for a "buyer's market" to result - resulting in a dramatic drop in shipping prices from the situation not long ago when there were not enough ships available to move the goods companies wanted to ship.

If you want to know the actual volume of goods shipped, the BDI isn't particularly useful.

From Wikipedia (link above)



Some of the articles quoted in earlier posts in this thread do not provide a valid analysis of the meaning of the BDI. This could be either due to honest misunderstanding or deliberate misrepresentation. Which is the case? I have no idea.
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Old 02-26-2009, 10:34 AM   #17
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

I posted a few of those articles as they were related to the second half of the title: Worldwide famine, food shortages.

Added to that, many farmers are not receiving loans to purchase fertilizer.

PaL
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Old 02-26-2009, 07:36 PM   #18
Jnana
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Steve,

Quote:
I think what you're saying is exactly what the others are saying, that the index, although treating the price of moving goods, also gives an indication as to how much goods are being transported. Lots of goods on the ships, higher the price, fewer goods, lower price - supply and demand, nothing too complicated.
Right. But, a small change in shipping demand (10%-20%) can cause a large change in the price of shipping (90%), and BDI reflects the latter. A 90% drop in the BDI does NOT mean a 90% drop in the quantity of goods shipped, which is what some of the articles seem to be implying.

BTW, I don't have a problem with people posting articles of this nature. I'm not taking issue with the poster, just with misrepresentation of what the BDI means in some of the articles. Such as:

Quote:
The BDI has dropped 94% in a short few weeks which means raw materials, grains, ores, steel, iron, cement and all imported products for food manufacturing and product manufacturing even though we actually do very little of that here in the US. We do make bread and other products that require grains, like cereals. We import clothing, gasoline, various fuels and, well, just about everything these days and the BDI says global shipping has shut down. NOTHING is moving.
Shipping is down, but is not "shut down". Goods are moving, but in lower quantities (and at MUCH cheaper shipping rates).

Quote:
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an indicator of how much product is actually out for delivery throughout the world.
No, not really.

Quote:
If we can use the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a guide for the next 12 months of product delivery and food availability in the stores we shop in then the BDI says shelves will be virtually empty of almost every product we use each and every day.
The BDI is highly volatile, and is a lousy indicator of what will happen in the next 12 months. What the BDI indicates is that if demand does improve, there is plenty of cheap shipping available to move products.

I expect letter of credit issues will be worked out, but I don't know how long that will take.

Last edited by Jnana; 02-26-2009 at 08:20 PM.
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Old 02-27-2009, 05:38 AM   #19
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Thanks for clarifying it for me, Jnana. I knew that the 25% drops we were seeing here at the ports was not the same as the 94% drop in the BDI, just didn't know how it actually correlated.
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Old 02-27-2009, 11:59 AM   #20
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Hi Jnana,

I agree that the ratio between the price of shipping is not necessarily in ratio with the amount of goods being shipped, for example, if a ship is only half full, then the cost of shipping logically would be half the price.

However, there is a ratio. The index will still give an idea of the volume by publishing the price. This would make a lot of sense to the people who deal with the shipping industry, which is not my case.

There is another spin off to this also which needs to be added in. As we know the US dolar is, in general, the currency for international trade. We also understand that if the dolaris in high demand the value against other currencies rises. The opposite,of course if the dolar is not in so much demand.

As we can see from the BDI there is a huge lull of interest for the $US as the shipping market is huge (and expensive) and the prices have fallen over 90%. This will contribute to lower the value of the dolar against other currencies, thus making the purchase of goods more expensive for the US to buy from other countries, probably creating yet another drop in imports basically killing of the shipping industry as the pricing for shipping will be no onger viable for the ships to leave port.

I know the argument is simplified, and it needs to be so that we can understand the possible problem more easily.

As I see it, exporting countries, as is already happening here in Brazil, will have to sell products to the national market, which will mean in the short term a drop of income for the exporting companies, reduction of infrastructure, unemployment. In the mid term, companies that have re structured and new companies will evolve to produce more at national level and the whole ball game will start over again to find other countries to trade with.

Importing countries, on the other hand, (like the US, Russia, Germany) will suffer lack of products, particularly food stuffs, and their prices should rise creating a short term inflation to try and cover the cost of the price increases. Money will become short at street level and many will lose their homes, will have to cut back on luxury items, which will hit national semi durable good companies, which will lead to unemployment. The exit of this problem will be slower, as a loaf of bread is worth more than a hi-fi unit when you're hungry, and the tendency would be for the food producing countries to have the upper hand.

Once the source of food has been re established, then the technology based countries would come back in to it.

Of course we would have to equate a war or two in there somewhere.

I hope I've not gone off topic too much. These are just thoughts coming out.

I'd be interested to know of you thoughts.

Best regards,

Steve



Quote:
Originally Posted by Jnana View Post
Steve,

Right. But, a small change in shipping demand (10%-20%) can cause a large change in the price of shipping (90%), and BDI reflects the latter. A 90% drop in the BDI does NOT mean a 90% drop in the quantity of goods shipped, which is what some of the articles seem to be implying.

BTW, I don't have a problem with people posting articles of this nature. I'm not taking issue with the poster, just with misrepresentation of what the BDI means in some of the articles. Such as:
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Old 02-27-2009, 05:10 PM   #21
Jnana
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

My thought is simply that certain people are using the BDI, which most people have never heard of, and explaining it incorrectly, in order to make things look worse than they are. Not that things aren't bad, but there's a big difference between a 10% drop in shipping volume and a 90% drop in shipping volume. Beside, why use BDI as a proxy for shipping volume when actual shipping volume numbers are available?

The following information is primarily for finished products shipped to the US, not dry bulk goods as the BDI reports.

Ocean shipping: Port Tracker report says volumes are lowest in four years

Jeff Berman, Group News Editor -- Logistics Management, 1/20/2009 WASHINGTONAs has been the case in previous months, the economy is continuing to hinder global trade activity. This trend was once again reflected in this month’s Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail trade association, and IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial information.


The Port Tracker report noted that cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports fell for the 17th consecutive month in December, adding that 2008 was the slowest year for retail container volume since 2004’s 14 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units (TEU). Annual volume for the 2008 was estimated at 15.3 million TEU compared to 2007’s 16.5 million TEU, marking a 7.1 percent annual dip.

Looking ahead, the Port Tracker report predicts January volume at 1.16 million TEU, down 6.3 percent from January 2008; February at 1.1 million TEU, down 11.1 percent from February 2008; March at 1.17 million TEU, up 1.1 percent from March 2008; April at 1.23 million TEU, down 2.6 percent from April 2008; and May at 1.25 million TEU, down 4 percent from May 2008.

--

More at the link above.

I haven't found the equivalent for bulk dry goods shipping volumes, but I expect it's out there someplace.

Yes, times are tough and companies and individuals are making adjustments. But when someone says OMG LOOK AT THIS NUMBER THAT'S DOWN 90% - PANIC!, it's time to do a little homework and see what the fuss is about.

I have no magic ball, I don't know where things will go from here. I tend to buy high and sell low, which shows how good my analysis skills are.
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Old 03-01-2009, 04:27 AM   #22
BarryC
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Thanks also Jnana - very helpful. Just anecdotal, but I have a family member in shipping grains and they also saw a drop off but then a slight resurgence as these graphs show.

Then again, I would not dismiss what Dr. James says in principle because I think it IS wise to prepare. We should all do the thought experiment, "What would my family do if the stores were closed for a month or more?" Not to panic, just think it through - then thoughtfully prepare.

Last edited by BarryC; 03-01-2009 at 04:31 AM.
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Old 03-02-2009, 07:02 AM   #23
peaceandlove
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Default People At Risk Of Not Having Enough To Eat

About food shortage side of this thread:

WORLD FOOD SHORTAGE IS UPON US

BBC WORLD News posted on youtube 2/19/2009

Video (5:27): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0CwuOGDQ-U
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Old 03-17-2009, 09:36 PM   #24
peaceandlove
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Default Is the Baltic Dry Index Rising?

Is the Baltic Dry Index Rising?

Catherine and News & Commentary, March 16, 2009 at 8:03 pm



Wikipedia on the BALTIC DRY INDEX: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

Source: http://solari.com/blog/

Last edited by peaceandlove; 03-18-2009 at 02:23 AM.
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Old 03-17-2009, 09:42 PM   #25
peaceandlove
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Default Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

When I searched Avalon for the BDI thread I found another thread had been started by Seth Haniel 1/20/2009 at:

http://www.projectavalon.net/forum/s...t=baltic+index

Excerpt:

Quote:
We expect this 'Whole Thing' to 'come down' in March of 2009. 'We' have been urging you to stock up on…dry foods like 50 lb bags of rice, 50 lb bags of oatmeal, powdered milk, canned foods, canned vegetables and such to assure your family will have enough to eat when the world economy totally collapses.

Read below…and PREPARE YOURSELVES. Pass this on folks-Thanks/'S'

Last edited by peaceandlove; 03-18-2009 at 02:24 AM.
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