Another View of Black Friday

Steve_A · 12-01-2009, 06:38 PM

Hi Everybody,

The mainstream media seems to think that Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year in the US, was a success. I'm not too sure.

There was an increase in sales of 0,5% in comparison to the same day from last year, however many have not taken into account the fact that in real terms less had been spent.

The US dollar over the last twelve months has lost around 10% of its' value against other hard currencies and so in real terms the value of the purchases was less because we must consider the value of the dollar when it is used.

The majority of the stores claimed that they were carrying less inventory during this day and the real difference will kick in and be felt when these stores try to replenish their stocks.

As the dollar is weaker against other currencies, all imported goods will cost the stores more, also manufactured goods made in the US will eventually be more expensive in dollar terms as the raw materials that do not exist in the US will also cost more, thus elevating the price of the final product.

Inflation will only be visible to the end user or consumer in around two to three months when all of this elevated costing trickles through to the stores.

I was fortunate enough to live through a period of hyper inflation here in Brazil during the beginning of the 1990s and although it was a strange notion to begin with with me I soon understood how things ran.

Prepare for a little bumpy ride. It may be strange to begin with, but things will eventually sort themselves out.

Best regards,

Steve

TheObserver · 12-01-2009, 08:06 PM

Black Friday and the whole holiday season is capitalism at it's most mentally ill. Every year we're told how retailers depend on this time of year.
Wouldn't it be smarter not to depend on it in their planning so no matter how big or small the season is it's still a bonus?

pyrangello · 12-01-2009, 09:27 PM

I think it has already started Steve, went to the grocery store yesterday , cheese products , way up, produce creeping. Bought onions from Peru yesterday in my little town, still trying to figure that one out . Gas here a gallon is $2.59 U.S.a gallon, but food seems to be a key indicator right now.

Humble Janitor · 12-02-2009, 04:32 AM

It's just an example of how xmas has moved away from being something you celebrate with family and friends to something that depends on how much/what you buy them and how much you save. It's disheartening.

THE eXchanger · 12-02-2009, 04:48 AM

i've noticed major downsizing in many things

the lastest trick,
is making pototoe chips appear to be the old 500 grams packs,
but, they only have 185 grams in these new packs,
it appears, they seal in a lot of air,
so, they likely, go bad faster

they price them, at 2 for $3.99 (185 gram bags)

regular price, might of been approx 1000 grams for $8.00

vs; 5.4 bags = 1000 grams at $2 = $10.80

it sure looks like you are getting a good deal

til you come home, and, realise

they were actually 35% more expensive,
than, the regular priced ones

trouble is, most folks, can't do math
- so, they NEVER realise how much
the marketing crews, jerk us all around

buyer beware

love/susan
the eXchanger

Humble Janitor · 12-02-2009, 05:16 AM

I think the solution there is to buy less potato chips. Heh. I deifnitely don't eat as much of that junk as I used to.

I don't mind buying relatives socks and other basic necessities because I care for them. I'm not however going to go overboard on expensive electronics and other junk imported from China.

Steve_A · 12-02-2009, 08:13 AM

Hi eXchanger,

The practice of putting less in a package has been commonplace down here for some time. The government drew up a law making the manufacturers place the quantity of the product very clearly so as to make it clear to the consumer what they are buying.

It started with yoghurts, then went on to biscuits and the like.

To keep it very simple, with any company, growth and increased profits are a sign of success. When a company can't expand any more it has to find ways of increasing profits (growth). One of the simplest forms is to give the consumer less for the same price, which is ironic as before companies 'sold up' to increase their profits; ie. buy 4 get 1 free.

The air put into bags of potatoe chips is actually to protect them from breaking during the transport, acting as a cushion. However we cannot escape the fact that it does make the package look to be fuller and I'm sure the manufacturers play on that.

I am in the process of sueing a supermarket chain for mis-labeling their prices on products: Was R$5,00 per Kilo; Now only R$0,49 per 100gms! The way the labeling was done with the sizing of the letters and numbers itt appeared that the promotion was: Was R$5,00; Now R$0,49!

There is an English traditional folk song called "Rigs Of The Time" which tells of all this sort of thing: http://sniff.numachi.com/pages/tiRIG...tRIGSTIME.html

It seems that some traditions never die.

Best regards,

Steve

Quote:

Originally Posted by eXchanger

i've noticed major downsizing in many things

the lastest trick,
is making pototoe chips appear to be the old 500 grams packs,
but, they only have 185 grams in these new packs,
it appears, they seal in a lot of air,
so, they likely, go bad faster

they price them, at 2 for $3.99 (185 gram bags)

regular price, might of been approx 1000 grams for $8.00

vs; 5.4 bags = 1000 grams at $2 = $10.80

it sure looks like you are getting a good deal

til you come home, and, realise

they were actually 35% more expensive,
than, the regular priced ones

trouble is, most folks, can't do math
- so, they NEVER realise how much
the marketing crews, jerk us all around

buyer beware

love/susan
the eXchanger

morguana · 12-02-2009, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheObserver

Black Friday and the whole holiday season is capitalism at it's most mentally ill. Every year we're told how retailers depend on this time of year.
Wouldn't it be smarter not to depend on it in their planning so no matter how big or small the season is it's still a bonus?

you would think so wouldnt you?

Quote:

It's just an example of how xmas has moved away from being something you celebrate with family and friends to something that depends on how much/what you buy them and how much you save. It's disheartening.

hj, so true.......its sickening

bou x

Steve_A · 12-15-2009, 09:17 PM

Hi Everybody,

Just as I predicted, prices are beginning to rise in the US. Inflation for the month of November was at 1.8% (similar now to Brazil).

The official numbers will be released tomorrow.

Best regards,

Steve

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve_A

The majority of the stores claimed that they were carrying less inventory during this day and the real difference will kick in and be felt when these stores try to replenish their stocks.

As the dollar is weaker against other currencies, all imported goods will cost the stores more, also manufactured goods made in the US will eventually be more expensive in dollar terms as the raw materials that do not exist in the US will also cost more, thus elevating the price of the final product.

Inflation will only be visible to the end user or consumer in around two to three months when all of this elevated costing trickles through to the stores.

I was fortunate enough to live through a period of hyper inflation here in Brazil during the beginning of the 1990s and although it was a strange notion to begin with with me I soon understood how things ran.

beren · 12-15-2009, 10:12 PM

I remember that from 90ies and my country with super high inflation...

It eventually ended in Zimbabwe style...or like in Wiemar republic...

peaceandlove · 12-16-2009, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi Everybody,

Just as I predicted, prices are beginning to rise in the US. Inflation for the month of November was at 1.8% (similar now to Brazil).

The official numbers will be released tomorrow.

Best regards,

Steve

Blessings Steve,

I was visiting a friend last night and he said the milk he buys jumped from $3.00 to $3.40 this week.

A new way to trick bottled water lovers is what used to be packaged as a gallon is now 3 Liters (3 QT, 5.4 FL OZ) KEEP AN EYE ON Net Weights!

PaL

Steve_A · 12-16-2009, 08:50 AM

Hi Everyone,

I must correct myself a little. I mentioned that inflation was 1.8% in November when I meant to say 'producer prices':

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com...s-2-4/1000607/

However, these increases will and already are beginning to trickle down to the consumer...

Best regards,

Steve

Quote:

Originally Posted by peaceandlove

Blessings Steve,

I was visiting a friend last night and he said the milk he buys jumped from $3.00 to $3.40 this week.

A new way to trick bottled water lovers is what used to be packaged as a gallon is now 3 Liters (3 QT, 5.4 FL OZ) KEEP AN EYE ON Net Weights!

PaL

peaceandlove · 12-16-2009, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi Everyone,

I must correct myself a little. I mentioned that inflation was 1.8% in November when I meant to say 'producer prices':

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com...s-2-4/1000607/

However, these increases will and already are beginning to trickle down to the consumer...

Best regards,

Steve

The following clip was included on the HR 1207 Transparency of the Fed thread, where I posted Ron Paul's Audit of the Fed interview, by default, but fits here better.

Rick Santelli reported on the Producer Price Index being up 1.8% on the CNBC Squawk Box show yesterday when Ron Paul was Co-Hosting

VIDEO (6:47): http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1359408557&play=1

12-01-2009, 06:38 PM	#1
Steve_A Project Avalon Moderator Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Northeastern Brazil Posts: 1,259	Another View of Black Friday Hi Everybody, The mainstream media seems to think that Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year in the US, was a success. I'm not too sure. There was an increase in sales of 0,5% in comparison to the same day from last year, however many have not taken into account the fact that in real terms less had been spent. The US dollar over the last twelve months has lost around 10% of its' value against other hard currencies and so in real terms the value of the purchases was less because we must consider the value of the dollar when it is used. The majority of the stores claimed that they were carrying less inventory during this day and the real difference will kick in and be felt when these stores try to replenish their stocks. As the dollar is weaker against other currencies, all imported goods will cost the stores more, also manufactured goods made in the US will eventually be more expensive in dollar terms as the raw materials that do not exist in the US will also cost more, thus elevating the price of the final product. Inflation will only be visible to the end user or consumer in around two to three months when all of this elevated costing trickles through to the stores. I was fortunate enough to live through a period of hyper inflation here in Brazil during the beginning of the 1990s and although it was a strange notion to begin with with me I soon understood how things ran. Prepare for a little bumpy ride. It may be strange to begin with, but things will eventually sort themselves out. Best regards, Steve

12-01-2009, 08:06 PM	#2
TheObserver Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: back in Minnesota Posts: 500	Re: Another View of Black Friday Black Friday and the whole holiday season is capitalism at it's most mentally ill. Every year we're told how retailers depend on this time of year. Wouldn't it be smarter not to depend on it in their planning so no matter how big or small the season is it's still a bonus?

12-01-2009, 09:27 PM	#3
pyrangello Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Northern Michigan Posts: 412	Re: Another View of Black Friday I think it has already started Steve, went to the grocery store yesterday , cheese products , way up, produce creeping. Bought onions from Peru yesterday in my little town, still trying to figure that one out . Gas here a gallon is $2.59 U.S.a gallon, but food seems to be a key indicator right now.

12-02-2009, 04:32 AM	#4
Humble Janitor Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,201	Re: Another View of Black Friday It's just an example of how xmas has moved away from being something you celebrate with family and friends to something that depends on how much/what you buy them and how much you save. It's disheartening.

12-02-2009, 04:48 AM	#5
THE eXchanger Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Spiritual eXplorer-Canada Posts: 4,915	Re: Another View of Black Friday i've noticed major downsizing in many things the lastest trick, is making pototoe chips appear to be the old 500 grams packs, but, they only have 185 grams in these new packs, it appears, they seal in a lot of air, so, they likely, go bad faster they price them, at 2 for $3.99 (185 gram bags) regular price, might of been approx 1000 grams for $8.00 vs; 5.4 bags = 1000 grams at $2 = $10.80 it sure looks like you are getting a good deal til you come home, and, realise they were actually 35% more expensive, than, the regular priced ones trouble is, most folks, can't do math - so, they NEVER realise how much the marketing crews, jerk us all around buyer beware love/susan the eXchanger

12-02-2009, 05:16 AM	#6
Humble Janitor Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,201	Re: Another View of Black Friday I think the solution there is to buy less potato chips. Heh. I deifnitely don't eat as much of that junk as I used to. I don't mind buying relatives socks and other basic necessities because I care for them. I'm not however going to go overboard on expensive electronics and other junk imported from China.

12-15-2009, 10:12 PM	#10
beren Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Belgrade,Serbia Posts: 508	Re: Another View of Black Friday I remember that from 90ies and my country with super high inflation... It eventually ended in Zimbabwe style...or like in Wiemar republic...