Update: Novel H1N - Change in Mortality Rate

Waterman · 05-31-2009, 07:49 AM

What's the mortality rate? It is rate of death. In this case it would be fatalities from the flu.

We have been tracking this influenza since it started. Now it has risen in percentage. As an example, there have now been 5 deaths in Texas out of a current total of 1400. That is a rise in the rate of mortality. The mortality rate for Texas is now .357%. Irregardless this is still something that we should watch very closely.

So when thinking of the current swine flu outbreak, which is now being called Novel H1N1 influenza. We continue to hear concern that it could become like the pandemic flu outbreak of 1918. Why is that outbreak so dreaded?

Two things manifested that caused it to kill millions of people worldwide. An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, and infected 28% of all Americans. The two things were high infection rate and high mortality rate.

At 28% infection rate and at the current .357% mortality rate how many would die? There are 306,550,305 people as of today in the United States.

If just the infection rate continues like the 1918 flu did that would kill 306,428 people. Which is 10 times higher than the normal death rate from flu. This is just increasing the number of people infected not increasing the mortality rate. Now this should really concern us. Why? Because the infection rate IS increasing

That is a considerable increase over the normal. So should the infection rate continue we can look for a significant increase in deaths even should the mortality rate stay low.

The mortality rate of the 1918 pandemic was 2.5% compared to the current new rate of .357% which is seven times higher than normal. So if the worst were to occur what would the picture be? Let's not go there.

As we speak we have enough to be concerned about. My suggestion remains the same as before. Take preventive measures to stay out of the group that gets the flu. If you do not know what to do, see "what to do for the flu" on my blog.

Ref:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/6447348.html

05-31-2009, 07:49 AM	#1
Waterman Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 345	Update: Novel H1N - Change in Mortality Rate What's the mortality rate? It is rate of death. In this case it would be fatalities from the flu. We have been tracking this influenza since it started. Now it has risen in percentage. As an example, there have now been 5 deaths in Texas out of a current total of 1400. That is a rise in the rate of mortality. The mortality rate for Texas is now .357%. Irregardless this is still something that we should watch very closely. So when thinking of the current swine flu outbreak, which is now being called Novel H1N1 influenza. We continue to hear concern that it could become like the pandemic flu outbreak of 1918. Why is that outbreak so dreaded? Two things manifested that caused it to kill millions of people worldwide. An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, and infected 28% of all Americans. The two things were high infection rate and high mortality rate. At 28% infection rate and at the current .357% mortality rate how many would die? There are 306,550,305 people as of today in the United States. If just the infection rate continues like the 1918 flu did that would kill 306,428 people. Which is 10 times higher than the normal death rate from flu. This is just increasing the number of people infected not increasing the mortality rate. Now this should really concern us. Why? Because the infection rate IS increasing That is a considerable increase over the normal. So should the infection rate continue we can look for a significant increase in deaths even should the mortality rate stay low. The mortality rate of the 1918 pandemic was 2.5% compared to the current new rate of .357% which is seven times higher than normal. So if the worst were to occur what would the picture be? Let's not go there. As we speak we have enough to be concerned about. My suggestion remains the same as before. Take preventive measures to stay out of the group that gets the flu. If you do not know what to do, see "what to do for the flu" on my blog. Ref: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/6447348.html Last edited by Waterman; 05-31-2009 at 07:54 AM.