Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2010) ~ KARL DENNINGER

peaceandlove · 01-01-2010, 01:47 AM

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2010) ~ KARL DENNINGER

Thursday, December 31. 2009

Let's score the 2009 edition first: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ding-2009.html (as follows or go to the link to view the 2008 outcome with the same 2009 outlook)

The economy will NOT recover in 2009: I'll take this one, although some would argue I only deserve half (I said 8% unemployment U3, we actually got 10%.)

Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Miss. Valid if you look at energy, but the "well beyond" includes a meaningful subset of the various things people buy. Nope.

Housing prices will continue to decline: Direct hit.

The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure: 1/2 a point. Certainly if you look at stock prices, it's a miss. If you look at whether credit creation was stabilized and increased, its a horrifying score. We did get the instability in the dollar, but no bond market crash. I didn't specify how, so I can't take credit for that which I didn't predict.

GDP will post a 12-month negative number, Depression print. Clean miss.

The stock market has not bottomed. 1/2 credit. It had not bottomed but my SPX 500 @ 500 call was not achieved. The 50% swing, however, got damn close. Lots of money to be made if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor - spot on.

Precious metals will not be a safe haven: Clean miss. Gold and silver have both performed well.

The Dollar will not collapse. Correct. It hasn't. It ended the year of 2008 at 82, it now trades at 78, down 5% or so.

The pound or Euro - and perhaps both - will be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. Early, which means wrong. Clean miss although the last month sure looks bad for the Euro.

The US Consumer goes from negative savings to positive: Direct hit.

Continues with Karl Denninger 2010 Outlook: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ding-2010.html

01-01-2010, 01:47 AM	#1
peaceandlove Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Turtle Island Posts: 2,776	Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2010) ~ KARL DENNINGER Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2010) ~ KARL DENNINGER Thursday, December 31. 2009 Let's score the 2009 edition first: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ding-2009.html (as follows or go to the link to view the 2008 outcome with the same 2009 outlook) The economy will NOT recover in 2009: I'll take this one, although some would argue I only deserve half (I said 8% unemployment U3, we actually got 10%.) Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Miss. Valid if you look at energy, but the "well beyond" includes a meaningful subset of the various things people buy. Nope. Housing prices will continue to decline: Direct hit. The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure: 1/2 a point. Certainly if you look at stock prices, it's a miss. If you look at whether credit creation was stabilized and increased, its a horrifying score. We did get the instability in the dollar, but no bond market crash. I didn't specify how, so I can't take credit for that which I didn't predict. GDP will post a 12-month negative number, Depression print. Clean miss. The stock market has not bottomed. 1/2 credit. It had not bottomed but my SPX 500 @ 500 call was not achieved. The 50% swing, however, got damn close. Lots of money to be made if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor - spot on. Precious metals will not be a safe haven: Clean miss. Gold and silver have both performed well. The Dollar will not collapse. Correct. It hasn't. It ended the year of 2008 at 82, it now trades at 78, down 5% or so. The pound or Euro - and perhaps both - will be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. Early, which means wrong. Clean miss although the last month sure looks bad for the Euro. The US Consumer goes from negative savings to positive: Direct hit. Continues with Karl Denninger 2010 Outlook: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ding-2010.html