The Horizon Project earthquake chart - where did they get their data?

[KathyT]

I had seen the Horizon Projects earthquake chart a couple of weeks ago. (www.thehorizonproject.com) The Horizon chart shows a stable trend through about 1997 or so, and a large increase at that time. I knew at the time I wanted to download the data from the U.S. Geological Survey website and reproduce the charts myself.

And I am glad I did. I do not get the results the Horizon Project shows in their charts. The only source they refer to, is back to USGS. They say their chart represents Worldwide earthquake data of earthquakes between magnitudes 6 and 8. Their chart values on the left show quantities, by year, ranging up to 40. Even that number is inaccurate.

I have no idea where they got their numbers.

I have created my own chart. I show you exactly where the numbers are from the USGS web sites. I picked the last 18 years to match to the Horizon chart. I took the USGS numbers starting with 1990, and the 18 year period, if it were to match, should show the large climb Horizon shows. It does NOT.

You’ll see the numbers I loaded into a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet below the chart. I took the direct USGS numbers and added totals for all earthquakes 6.0 and larger. You can see, the average numbers PER YEAR exceed 100… so where does Horizon get numbers below 40? Their numbers do NOT compute!

The data does not support a theory that earthquakes have been increasing significantly in recent years.

I welcome anyone to re-check these numbers and if more information comes to light, I’m interested in hearing about it.
(11/30/08 Please see my additional post below; the answer I got from Mr. Brent Miller.)
Here’s what my analysis of the data from USGS shows:
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/info_1990s.html

[Koyaanisqatsi]

great work Kathy! the chart used by the horizon project is alarming indeed. how brilliant of you to look into this. your research seems to suggest that either HP or USGS is lying. who & why?

this should be an interesting thread!

[burgundia]

Originally Posted by Koyaanisqatsi

great work Kathy! the chart used by the horizon project is alarming indeed. how brilliant of you to look into this. your research seems to suggest that either HP or USGS is lying. who & why?

this should be an interesting thread!

indeed. anybody willing to do some more research?

[MacGyverCanada]

Someone on this forrum called the HP chart as bunk last week...

George at UrbanSurvival.com has linked HalfPastHuman's webbot prediction of 'twin earthquakes Dec 10-12' with a warning from FEMA to keep an eye on the New Madrid Fault Zone. We should keep an eye out for minor tremors in this area over the next 2 weeks.

[Noela]

Steve Qualye's website has a list of earthquakes in the past7 days - it is mind boggling.

[mu2143]

The link from USGS is from the GOV hmmm the government.

O yea they are lying all the time!!!

Government = Control of the mind

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally Posted by mu2143

The link from USGS is from the GOV hmmm the government.

O yea they are lying all the time!!!

Government = Control of the mind

yes mu i thought of this first and foremost. in a coin toss i'd bet that the govt is lying by not reavealing the actual number of quakes but still hard to tell without further looking into.

Thank You Kathy!

[quest]

i did have doubts about their story, could be disinfo.

THP talks about earth aligning or entering this 'galactic plain' soon.
somewhere else i heard we are not even close to alignment, does anyone have reliable info on this subject?

[Zenbuoy]

Originally Posted by MacGyverCanada

George at UrbanSurvival.com has linked HalfPastHuman's webbot prediction of 'twin earthquakes Dec 10-12'

"At the moment, however, it looks like at least one of the two quakes will be inside the band 32 to 36-degrees latitude and that one of the quakes will be noticed as having 5 pretty distinct/large aftershocks of some consequence.

One of the quakes will also be noted for causing "isolation" to the point that other countries will be sending aid - and it's possible that the quake with the isolation could be U.S. centered."

with a warning from FEMA to keep an eye on the New Madrid Fault Zone.

Government warns of "catastrophic" U.S. quake

FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee -- home to some 44 million people.


This is the latest taken from george Ure's site, Urbansurvival.com

(this is apparently close to how the web-bot coalates millions of pages of information on the net into a coherent narrative.)

"As if the current rate of emotional tension release is not enough, there are indications from the movement of Populace/USofA entity through modelspace that [anger] and [rage], and [revenge] will be rising [visibility] within the [populace/usofa] from late in the day on December 1, and continuing to rise through to December 15th where it reaches a plateau that extends at the same level until late in January. The precipitating 'events' that will trigger the [onset of visible rage/anger] will themselves start to become [visible] just after midnight on the 26th of November. These events will continue at a low(ish) level through the last few days of November and then become much more dramatic in both [scope] and [presence] as we turn the calendar into December. The data sets indicate that the [financial calamity] of late September and early October *will* be revisited on a [scale/extent] that is both [broad] and [deep] within the USofA [financial structure(s)] over these 17/seventeen days (or thereabouts). The longer term data sets are indicating that the [manifesting circumstances] of this November 27th through to December 14th (more or less) will also be [echoed] again, only with more intensity, and at deeper levels of the [social economic order] from January 25th through February 14th."

Remember, the quakes are approximately (12.10 -12.15)

[KathyT]

Originally Posted by mu2143

The link from USGS is from the GOV hmmm the government.
O yea they are lying all the time!!!
Government = Control of the mind

No, Mu2143, I don’t think you can conclude “they” (government) is “lying all the time”. There are many agencies in the government that are doing a good job of gathering data for the public. They’re not all bad. And yes, I do think there are arms of certain agencies like the CIA, and military that are involved in huge coverups.

I think the data from USGS is pretty accurate. Much of it is dependent on the seismology equipment they use, and for sure the equipment they’ve used over the past 20 years is a whole lot better than what they had in the first 20 years of the 20th century. One has to take into account the quality of data USGS has been able to track for 100 years… they can only work with the tools they had at the time… and we’re talking worldwide, where some areas have likely had no seismographs at all in earlier years.

Originally Posted by Koyaanisqatsi

great work Kathy! the chart used by the horizon project is alarming indeed. how brilliant of you to look into this. your research seems to suggest that either HP or USGS is lying. who & why?

I wasn’t ready to conclude it was ‘who was lying’, I just want to get the facts.. the truth. So I wrote Mr. Brent Miller of the Horizon Project, and challenged his data. I got his response. His response was

11/29/2008
“Please read the news article carefully as the data is in relation to "deadly" or "historic" quakes. The data and graph are correct. Below is the link...”

And he links me back to his graph, not to the “data” behind his statistics.

My opinion is this: He and the Horizon Project are manipulative forecasters.... They’ve cherry picked the earthquake data that suits them. They’ve picked an average of 40 earthquakes out of an average of 150 strong earthquakes PER YEAR for the past century, and failed to tell us which ones “they’ve picked”. No explanation of where, when, or why. Then they’ve produced a graph to deceive the public by representing a graph that is “Worldwide” and don’t tell the public they’ve dropped another 90 earthquakes off their graph. That graph is going around the internet, and the message it visually tells, is “earthquakes are recently increasing by a huge scale”. They use this to prey on people’s emotions (their quote: “earthquake data shows frightening trend”), so that people will believe somehow they know more than the average guy… and, oh, by the way, maybe you’ll donate money to them. Geeze.

Mr. Brent Miller kind of reminds me of a snake oil medicine seller.

[burgundia]

Originally Posted by Zenbuoy

Government warns of "catastrophic" U.S. quake

FEMA predicted a large earthquake would cause "widespread and catastrophic physical damage" across Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee -- home to some 44 million people.


This is the latest taken from george Ure's site, Urbansurvival.com

(this is apparently close to how the web-bot coalates millions of pages of information on the net into a coherent narrative.)

"themselves start to become [visible] just after midnight on the 26th of November. These events will continue at a low(ish) level through the last few days of November and then become much more dramatic in both [scope] and [presence] as we turn the calendar into December. The data sets indicate that the [financial calamity] of late September and early October *will* be revisited on a [scale/extent] that is both [broad] and [deep] within the USofA [financial structure(s)] over these 17/seventeen days (or thereabouts). The longer term data sets are indicating that the [manifesting circumstances] of this November 27th through to December 14th (more or less) will also be [echoed] again, only with more intensity, and at deeper levels of the [social economic order] from January 25th through February 14th."

Remember, the quakes are approximately (12.10 -12.15)

When exactly did the killings in India started? wasn't it 27th?

[ABHA]

Originally Posted by quest

i did have doubts about their story, could be disinfo.

THP talks about earth aligning or entering this 'galactic plain' soon.
somewhere else i heard we are not even close to alignment, does anyone have reliable info on this subject?

Hi you asked for it, so here it is, there is a lot of reading but you could class this as pretty important.
We will always come back to the question , 'who do we trust?' NASA being a source of some of these reports is always going to be suspect.
So happy reading, not sure on my own opinion yet, so

The following paper by Bachall, et al published in Nature, 1985 gives information about the movement of the sun through the plane relative to mass extinctions and craterings. From the abstract:

Quote:

The period and amplitude of the Sun's motion perpendicular to the galactic plane are important parameters in some explanations of the terrestrial mass extinctions and cratering records1−5. Here we have calculated the range of periods and vertical excursions that are consistent with the distributions of tracer stars in the Galaxy and have also evaluated the probable phase jitter in the solar period. We find acceptable half-periods for the vertical oscillation that range from 26 to 37 Myr (including the range of periods that have been inferred from the terrestrial records on mass extinctions and on cratering), maximum heights above the plane from 49 to 93 pc, and an average phase jitter per half-period of the order of 6−9%. The largest uncertainty in all these calculations is caused by the unknown distribution of the unseen mass that must be postulated to explain the distribution of observed stars6−7. For all the models we consider, the most recent passage of the Sun through the galactic plane occurred in the past 3 Myr provided only that the present position of the Sun is between 0 and 20 pc above the plane. We extend the argument of Thaddeus and Chanan8 to show that the apparent periodicity in the mass extinction and cratering records cannot be caused by an population of objects (observed or unobserved) that contributes a major fraction of the total mass density at the solar vicinity.

Quote:

Our sun is also in motion. Relative to the average motion of the most commonly measured nearby stars, the sun moves with a speed of about 16.5 kilometers per second, or nearly 50 light-years per million years. The sun's path is inclined about 25 degrees to the plane of the galaxy and is headed toward a region in the constellation of Hercules near its border with Lyra. The sun oscillates through the plane of the galaxy with an amplitude of about 230 light-years, crossing the plane every 33 million years. However, the sun's motion relative to the local stellar neighborhood should not be confused with its movement around the center of the galaxy, since the whole solar neighborhood (including the sun) orbits the galactic center once every 250 million years. Just as we do not include the earth's velocity around the sun when calculating the speed of an airplane (we are only interested in the ground-speed), astronomers do not include the sun's galactic orbital velocity when describing its local motion.

cording to this study, conducted by Humphreys and Larsen, Dept. of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 1995; the sun is approximately 20.5pc above the galactic plane. This is equivalent to 63.6 light years.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995AJ....110.2183H

A more recent study by Reed of Dept. of Physics, Alma College using parallax measurements from OB stars, confirmed and refined, Humphreys, et al by concluding 19.5pc. and we all hear of 19.5 hyper dimensional properties so i wonder if being at that position could lead to something?
http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0507/0507655.pdf

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1985Natur.316..706B

I really do feel there should be a balance of info regarding this as there seems to be rucks of people believing the hype...? if it is hype?

Roll on 2013

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally Posted by KathyT

I just want to get the facts.. the truth. So I wrote Mr. Brent Miller of the Horizon Project, and challenged his data. I got his response. His response was

11/29/2008
“Please read the news article carefully as the data is in relation to "deadly" or "historic" quakes. The data and graph are correct. Below is the link...”

And he links me back to his graph, not to the “data” behind his statistics.

My opinion is this: He and the Horizon Project are manipulative forecasters.... They’ve cherry picked the earthquake data that suits them. They’ve picked an average of 40 earthquakes out of an average of 150 strong earthquakes PER YEAR for the past century, and failed to tell us which ones “they’ve picked”. No explanation of where, when, or why. Then they’ve produced a graph to deceive the public by representing a graph that is “Worldwide” and don’t tell the public they’ve dropped another 90 earthquakes off their graph. That graph is going around the internet, and the message it visually tells, is “earthquakes are recently increasing by a huge scale”. They use this to prey on people’s emotions (their quote: “earthquake data shows frightening trend”), so that people will believe somehow they know more than the average guy… and, oh, by the way, maybe you’ll donate money to them. Geeze.

Mr. Brent Miller kind of reminds me of a snake oil medicine seller.

excellent work Kathy and thank you very much for following this up. after reviewing your latest work i must say i feel disappointed in the integrity of THP. this is not to say all that they presented is to be dismissed. what i feel though is that your statement about them using certain key bits of selective material as a tool to 'prey' on people is pretty accurate. this realization is disheartening because the nature of the topic, especially if there is any truth in it, is serious as it is and furthermore if their research is forthright then i can't understand the need to dramatize it more than the nature of its content already is unless of course this dramatization could perhaps boost revenue.

[micjer]

http://www.thehorizonproject.com/earthquakes.cfm

This is the chart that Kathy is talking about.


Now, more than ever we need to question everything. Nice research Kathy.

I do feel that the weather has certainly become more severe lately. This goes along with their research, but the earthquake increase does look suspect at this point.

[quest]

Originally Posted by Lee BURTON

Hi you asked for it, so here it is, there is a lot of reading but you could class this as pretty important.
We will always come back to the question , 'who do we trust?' NASA being a source of some of these reports is always going to be suspect.
So happy reading, not sure on my own opinion yet, so

The following paper by Bachall, et al published in Nature, 1985 gives information about the movement of the sun through the plane relative to mass extinctions and craterings. From the abstract:

Quote:

The period and amplitude of the Sun's motion perpendicular to the galactic plane are important parameters in some explanations of the terrestrial mass extinctions and cratering records1−5. Here we have calculated the range of periods and vertical excursions that are consistent with the distributions of tracer stars in the Galaxy and have also evaluated the probable phase jitter in the solar period. We find acceptable half-periods for the vertical oscillation that range from 26 to 37 Myr (including the range of periods that have been inferred from the terrestrial records on mass extinctions and on cratering), maximum heights above the plane from 49 to 93 pc, and an average phase jitter per half-period of the order of 6−9%. The largest uncertainty in all these calculations is caused by the unknown distribution of the unseen mass that must be postulated to explain the distribution of observed stars6−7. For all the models we consider, the most recent passage of the Sun through the galactic plane occurred in the past 3 Myr provided only that the present position of the Sun is between 0 and 20 pc above the plane. We extend the argument of Thaddeus and Chanan8 to show that the apparent periodicity in the mass extinction and cratering records cannot be caused by an population of objects (observed or unobserved) that contributes a major fraction of the total mass density at the solar vicinity.

Quote:

Our sun is also in motion. Relative to the average motion of the most commonly measured nearby stars, the sun moves with a speed of about 16.5 kilometers per second, or nearly 50 light-years per million years. The sun's path is inclined about 25 degrees to the plane of the galaxy and is headed toward a region in the constellation of Hercules near its border with Lyra. The sun oscillates through the plane of the galaxy with an amplitude of about 230 light-years, crossing the plane every 33 million years. However, the sun's motion relative to the local stellar neighborhood should not be confused with its movement around the center of the galaxy, since the whole solar neighborhood (including the sun) orbits the galactic center once every 250 million years. Just as we do not include the earth's velocity around the sun when calculating the speed of an airplane (we are only interested in the ground-speed), astronomers do not include the sun's galactic orbital velocity when describing its local motion.

cording to this study, conducted by Humphreys and Larsen, Dept. of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 1995; the sun is approximately 20.5pc above the galactic plane. This is equivalent to 63.6 light years.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995AJ....110.2183H

A more recent study by Reed of Dept. of Physics, Alma College using parallax measurements from OB stars, confirmed and refined, Humphreys, et al by concluding 19.5pc. and we all hear of 19.5 hyper dimensional properties so i wonder if being at that position could lead to something?
http://arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0507/0507655.pdf

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1985Natur.316..706B

I really do feel there should be a balance of info regarding this as there seems to be rucks of people believing the hype...? if it is hype?

Roll on 2013

hey thanks Lee!

i did found some info too, but have to finish some work first, so will be reading the next coming days.
the point is that that the more serious websites with useful info are oftentimes less easy to read
but yep, its worth it, copy-paste is easy but that makes it hard to define if their is truth in all the (dis)info.
i more and more believe some folks, entities, whatever, want us to believe the doom scenario’s. conspiracy sites with lots of creative people are a good alley to get started i guess.

i'll will respond later on the subject. thanks again.

[Luminari]

I just finished watching 'The Horizon Project' Episode 1 documentary:
http://isohunt.com/torrent_details/2...ct?tab=summary

Quite scary but a compelling and scientific argument for 2012, well produced feature.

[WalkingTurtle]

They are referring to
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/...al_mag_big.php
So, the data sorted from this page would show the given graph at
http://www.thehorizonproject.com/earthquakes.cfm

See here:

|number of earthquakes M 6-9|year|
1 1556
1 1619
1 1663
1 1664
1 1668
1 1687
1 1693
1 1700
1 1730
1 1755
1 1787
1 1811
5 1812
1 1821
1 1823
1 1835
1 1836
1 1838
2 1843
1 1855
2 1857
1 1865
4 1868
1 1871
2 1872
1 1873
1 1875
1 1877
1 1882
1 1886
2 1887
1 1890
1 1891
3 1892
1 1895
1 1896
2 1897
2 1898
6 1899
1 1900
2 1901
2 1902
2 1903
2 1904
3 1905
4 1906
3 1907
3 1908
1 1909
4 1910
4 1911
2 1912
1 1914
3 1915
1 1917
4 1918
3 1920
3 1922
4 1923
4 1925
1 1926
4 1927
1 1928
5 1929
2 1930
4 1931
5 1932
4 1933
5 1934
6 1935
1 1937
3 1938
2 1939
3 1940
1 1941
4 1942
4 1943
4 1944
2 1945
6 1946
4 1947
4 1948
5 1949
2 1950
3 1951
2 1952
5 1953
8 1954
12 1957
4 1958
4 1959
3 1960
3 1962
2 1963
4 1964
13 1965
6 1966
3 1967
6 1968
4 1969
5 1970
4 1971
6 1972
1 1973
5 1974
6 1975
6 1976
2 1977
2 1978
2 1979
5 1980
3 1981
1 1982
4 1983
1 1984
4 1985
3 1986
4 1987
4 1988
2 1989
2 1990
3 1991
6 1992
3 1993
3 1994
4 1995
1 1996
5 1997
8 1998
13 1999
6 2000
7 2001
23 2002
39 2003
35 2004
35 2005
25 2006
47 2007
34 2008


WT

[Koyaanisqatsi]

nice work WT thank you!