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Old 10-20-2008, 08:38 PM   #1
rsywong
Avalon Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 15
Red face Why prophecies givng a specific time are almost always wrong

These are the reasons:

1. Probabilistically impossible. They are claimimg highly unlikly events, to occur in a specific time. Any bookmaker can accept the bet on it at good odds.

2. Prophecies are invariably on horrifying events. Knowing the prophecy can be quite frightening. Knowing the time a horrifying event to occur is more so. The lives of many will be devastated. Just like foretelling the date of death of a person, this is not helpful to the person. Therefore a good prophet doesn't ususally give the date even if he knows it for sure. However giving a time can still be a reponsible act when it is very urgent, as in the illustration in (3).

3. The duty of a prophet is not to be accurate. They do not want their prophecies to come true. They are here to forewarn people that such things are likley to happen, if people do not alter their course. So a prophecy is just a signal, or an advice to make changes. It may take many forms, even some deception if neccesary. There is no reason for it to be absolutely truthful. Take an example of a seer (someone who can see) seeing a blind man is about to walk to the edge of a cliff. Knowing the blind man is going to fall over in 15 steps, he says to the blind man,"Don't go further, there is a cliff in front of you.". but the blind man takes no heed. Now the blind man is 10 steps away, he says in an urgent voice, close to tears," 5 more steps, and you will fall over the cliff! Turn right!" The blind man hesitates but still continues, and finds he is all right at the 5th step. He laughs lould and says," You say you are a seer? You are more blind than I". The seer sadly leaves the scene, knowing he was never to be listened to from the start.
Then there is the story of the devil seeing the blind man nearing the cliff, but finding the wind getting stronger and is about to turn right. The devils says," I am your guardian angel, walk straight ahead, in 5 steps you will find a piece of gold." Indeed the blind man picks up a piece of gold the devil has put there. "Go further you will find more gold and heaven awaits you." Of course, the blind man is happy to follow.

See how the devil can be accurate because he makes it happen and the seer can be wrong because he does not want it to happen?

4. There is probably some unknown reason for the true prophet, particularly one who has great teachings to make oneself deniable by giving false predictions deliberately. There is certainly good reasons for a false prophet to constantly seek affirmation, through magical or illusional means.

The wisest appears stupid, the most courageous appears timid. (Lao Tze)

Last edited by rsywong; 10-20-2008 at 08:40 PM.
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