What If US Collapses? Soviet Collapse Lessons Every American Needs To Know: Must Read

[QUESTINY]

What If US Collapses? Soviet Collapse Lessons Every American Needs To Know: Must Read
First off, you must go to the site to understand the full meaning of this info. See all 16 sides. If someone could post those slides, that would be much appreciated. The info on the slides is the meat of the piece.

What If US Collapses? Soviet Collapse Lessons Every American Needs To Know
Submitted by Dmitri Davydov on

http://madconomist.com/what-if-us-co...-needs-to-know

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am not an expert or a scholar or an activist. I am more of an eye-witness. I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and I have tried to put my observations into a concise message. I will leave it up to you to decide just how urgent a message it is.

My talk tonight is about the lack of collapse-preparedness here in the United States. I will compare it with the situation in the Soviet Union, prior to its collapse. The rhetorical device I am going to use is the "Collapse Gap" – to go along with the Nuclear Gap, and the Space Gap, and various other superpower gaps that were fashionable during the Cold War.



Slide [2] The subject of economic collapse is generally a sad one. But I am an optimistic, cheerful sort of person, and I believe that, with a bit of preparation, such events can be taken in stride. As you can probably surmise, I am actually rather keen on observing economic collapses. Perhaps when I am really old, all collapses will start looking the same to me, but I am not at that point yet.

And this next one certainly has me intrigued. From what I've seen and read, it seems that there is a fair chance that the U.S. economy will collapse sometime within the foreseeable future. It also would seem that we won't be particularly well-prepared for it. As things stand, the U.S. economy is poised to perform something like a disappearing act. And so I am eager to put my observations of the Soviet collapse to good use.



Slide [3] I anticipate that some people will react rather badly to having their country compared to the USSR. I would like to assure you that the Soviet people would have reacted similarly, had the United States collapsed first. Feelings aside, here are two 20th century superpowers, who wanted more or less the same things – things like technological progress, economic growth, full employment, and world domination – but they disagreed about the methods. And they obtained similar results – each had a good run, intimidated the whole planet, and kept the other scared. Each eventually went bankrupt.



Slide [4] The USA and the USSR were evenly matched in many categories, but let me just mention four.

The Soviet manned space program is alive and well under Russian management, and now offers first-ever space charters. The Americans have been hitching rides on the Soyuz while their remaining spaceships sit in the shop.

The arms race has not produced a clear winner, and that is excellent news, because Mutual Assured Destruction remains in effect. Russia still has more nuclear warheads than the US, and has supersonic cruise missile technology that can penetrate any missile shield, especially a nonexistent one.

The Jails Race once showed the Soviets with a decisive lead, thanks to their innovative GULAG program. But they gradually fell behind, and in the end the Jails Race has been won by the Americans, with the highest percentage of people in jail ever.

The Hated Evil Empire Race is also finally being won by the Americans. It's easy now that they don't have anyone to compete against.



Slide [5] Continuing with our list of superpower similarities, many of the problems that sunk the Soviet Union are now endangering the United States as well. Such as a huge, well-equipped, very expensive military, with no clear mission, bogged down in fighting Muslim insurgents. Such as energy shortfalls linked to peaking oil production. Such as a persistently unfavorable trade balance, resulting in runaway foreign debt. Add to that a delusional self-image, an inflexible ideology, and an unresponsive political system.



Slide [6] An economic collapse is amazing to observe, and very interesting if described accurately and in detail. A general description tends to fall short of the mark, but let me try. An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea. One such untenable arrangement rests on the notion that it is possible to perpetually borrow more and more money from abroad, to pay for more and more energy imports, while the price of these imports continues to double every few years. Free money with which to buy energy equals free energy, and free energy does not occur in nature. This must therefore be a transient condition. When the flow of energy snaps back toward equilibrium, much of the US economy will be forced to shut down.



Slide [7] I've described what happened to Russia in some detail in one of my articles, which is available on SurvivingPeakOil.com. I don't see why what happens to the United States should be entirely dissimilar, at least in general terms. The specifics will be different, and we will get to them in a moment. We should certainly expect shortages of fuel, food, medicine, and countless consumer items, outages of electricity, gas, and water, breakdowns in transportation systems and other infrastructure, hyperinflation, widespread shutdowns and mass layoffs, along with a lot of despair, confusion, violence, and lawlessness. We definitely should not expect any grand rescue plans, innovative technology programs, or miracles of social cohesion.



Slide [8] When faced with such developments, some people are quick to realize what it is they have to do to survive, and start doing these things, generally without anyone's permission. A sort of economy emerges, completely informal, and often semi-criminal. It revolves around liquidating, and recycling, the remains of the old economy. It is based on direct access to resources, and the threat of force, rather than ownership or legal authority. People who have a problem with this way of doing things, quickly find themselves out of the game.

These are the generalities. Now let's look at some specifics.



Slide [9] One important element of collapse-preparedness is making sure that you don't need a functioning economy to keep a roof over your head. In the Soviet Union, all housing belonged to the government, which made it available directly to the people. Since all housing was also built by the government, it was only built in places that the government could service using public transportation. After the collapse, almost everyone managed to keep their place.

In the United States, very few people own their place of residence free and clear, and even they need an income to pay real estate taxes. People without an income face homelessness. When the economy collapses, very few people will continue to have an income, so homelessness will become rampant. Add to that the car-dependent nature of most suburbs, and what you will get is mass migrations of homeless people toward city centers.



Slide [10] Soviet public transportation was more or less all there was, but there was plenty of it. There were also a few private cars, but so few that gasoline rationing and shortages were mostly inconsequential. All of this public infrastructure was designed to be almost infinitely maintainable, and continued to run even as the rest of the economy collapsed.

The population of the United States is almost entirely car-dependent, and relies on markets that control oil import, refining, and distribution. They also rely on continuous public investment in road construction and repair. The cars themselves require a steady stream of imported parts, and are not designed to last very long. When these intricately interconnected systems stop functioning, much of the population will find itself stranded.



Slide [11] Economic collapse affects public sector employment almost as much as private sector employment, eventually. Because government bureaucracies tend to be slow to act, they collapse more slowly. Also, because state-owned enterprises tend to be inefficient, and stockpile inventory, there is plenty of it left over, for the employees to take home, and use in barter. Most Soviet employment was in the public sector, and this gave people some time to think of what to do next.

Private enterprises tend to be much more efficient at many things. Such laying off their people, shutting their doors, and liquidating their assets. Since most employment in the United States is in the private sector, we should expect the transition to permanent unemployment to be quite abrupt for most people.



Slide [12] When confronting hardship, people usually fall back on their families for support. The Soviet Union experienced chronic housing shortages, which often resulted in three generations living together under one roof. This didn't make them happy, but at least they were used to each other. The usual expectation was that they would stick it out together, come what may.

In the United States, families tend to be atomized, spread out over several states. They sometimes have trouble tolerating each other when they come together for Thanksgiving, or Christmas, even during the best of times. They might find it difficult to get along, in bad times. There is already too much loneliness in this country, and I doubt that economic collapse will cure it.



Slide [13] To keep evil at bay, Americans require money. In an economic collapse, there is usually hyperinflation, which wipes out savings. There is also rampant unemployment, which wipes out incomes. The result is a population that is largely penniless.

In the Soviet Union, very little could be obtained for money. It was treated as tokens rather than as wealth, and was shared among friends. Many things – housing and transportation among them – were either free or almost free.



Slide [14] Soviet consumer products were always an object of derision – refrigerators that kept the house warm – and the food, and so on. You'd be lucky if you got one at all, and it would be up to you to make it work once you got it home. But once you got it to work, it would become a priceless family heirloom, handed down from generation to generation, sturdy, and almost infinitely maintainable.

In the United States, you often hear that something "is not worth fixing." This is enough to make a Russian see red. I once heard of an elderly Russian who became irate when a hardware store in Boston wouldn't sell him replacement bedsprings: "People are throwing away perfectly good mattresses, how am I supposed to fix them?"

Economic collapse tends to shut down both local production and imports, and so it is vitally important that anything you own wears out slowly, and that you can fix it yourself if it breaks. Soviet-made stuff generally wore incredibly hard. The Chinese-made stuff you can get around here – much less so.



Slide [15] The Soviet agricultural sector was notoriously inefficient. Many people grew and gathered their own food even in relatively prosperous times. There were food warehouses in every city, stocked according to a government allocation scheme. There were very few restaurants, and most families cooked and ate at home. Shopping was rather labor-intensive, and involved carrying heavy loads. Sometimes it resembled hunting – stalking that elusive piece of meat lurking behind some store counter. So the people were well-prepared for what came next.

In the United States, most people get their food from a supermarket, which is supplied from far away using refrigerated diesel trucks. Many people don't even bother to shop and just eat fast food. When people do cook, they rarely cook from scratch. This is all very unhealthy, and the effect on the nation's girth, is visible, clear across the parking lot. A lot of the people, who just waddle to and from their cars, seem unprepared for what comes next. If they suddenly had to start living like the Russians, they would blow out their knees.



Slide [16] The Soviet government threw resources at immunization programs, infectious disease control, and basic care. It directly operated a system of state-owned clinics, hospitals, and sanatoriums. People with fatal ailments or chronic conditions often had reason to complain, and had to pay for private care – if they had the money.

In the United States, medicine is for profit. People seems to think nothing of this fact. There are really very few fields of endeavor to which Americans would deny the profit motive. The problem is, once the economy is removed, so is the profit, along with the services it once helped to motivate.

[Zarathustra]

Thanks for that post Q. To say that we as a nation lack preparation for a situation of that kind is a gross understatement.

can you please post the link again, I can't seem to open it

thanks

[ophiuchus]

realistically how close do you think we are to such a scenario because my wife and mother wanted to commit me last night just because i wanted to have a conversation about withdrawing some investments and buying some silver. when they woke up this morning and saw the news about the fed bailout plan i got told "i told you so." if all the things we talk about on this site are true someone better have the bal_s to come forward and prove it soon publicly or we will stay 5% and prisoners.

[kopenhagen]

Originally Posted by ophiuchus

realistically how close do you think we are to such a scenario because my wife and mother wanted to commit me last night just because i wanted to have a conversation about withdrawing some investments and buying some silver. when they woke up this morning and saw the news about the fed bailout plan i got told "i told you so." if all the things we talk about on this site are true someone better have the bal_s to come forward and prove it soon publicly or we will stay 5% and prisoners.

check M St Clair threads, he advised to keep few money for your bills the rest if you can buy Gold!

[gordon]

What If US Collapses? Soviet Collapse Lessons Every American Needs To Know: Must Read

If U.S.A and Russia does collapse? It would be mainly be China, but other countries will try and fill in the gap...China will, then it really would be the 'End Of The World'. Thank You, Americans, for being a Mega-Super-Huge-Big-Massive-Power of the world.

[empathy]

Great post. I learned a lot.

Most of us Seattalites couldn't handle not having Starbucks let alone a supermarktet. And cars? well, there is always bikes. ... .... I hope my neighbors don't cannibalize me O_o

[TranceAm]

Reinventing Collapse
By Dmitry Orlov
Created 09/15/2008 - 17:17 :

http://www.realitysandwich.com/print/8496

Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century

(PART ONE OF THREE) By Dmitry Orlov

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fre..._lessons.shtml

[seeing clearly]

Originally Posted by ophiuchus

realistically how close do you think we are to such a scenario because my wife and mother wanted to commit me last night just because i wanted to have a conversation about withdrawing some investments and buying some silver. when they woke up this morning and saw the news about the fed bailout plan i got told "i told you so." if all the things we talk about on this site are true someone better have the bal_s to come forward and prove it soon publicly or we will stay 5% and prisoners.

For many years I did biz with some fine folks
in New Hampshire

I had done a load of research on mark ups, return policies and such.
Sadly a huge life reversal made me have to sel off all my holdings
but I doubled or more so on ALL of them. Wish I still had some.

Plan was to use the gold to buy land to run to for survival
I have seen this time approaching for twenty years already.
Plan was to keep the silver which I bought in SMALL denominations
for trading for supplies not avail to me by barter or sefl sufficinecy
when TSHTF.

The small denominations of silver were the last I returned
and a sign of impending disaster, another story.


These folks are mintproductsdotcom

very ethical and responsive.

some dealers dont want to know you
if you want to retrun any holdings.


purchases of small 1/8 OZ silver NOW can be a dyke
against the coming dearth of tradable coinage.

Sea shells anyone?




`

[arcora]

My wife and I have discussed how to survive a collapse many times.

We have scaled back - alot.

Our house payment is about 1K/mo and we feel that if we can keep this roof over our heads and eat, we'll survive. We don't have car payments. We do have some credit card debt but if hell breaks loose we'll be happy to make the banksters eat it.

The hardest part of this preparedness was believing that such a scenario could happen in America.

[THE eXchanger]

xxx

[gordon]

Australia is safe from most to all problems of the world.