Oct. 24: Stock Market Crash

[ctophil]

Hi everybody,

What I find interesting is that the day after mmerlinn's prediction (October 25), we find a lot of major, major problems in the world markets.

Here in the "Economy and Currency" section, somebody else posted this news tidbit about what's going on today, which is quite major in my opinion: http://www.projectavalon.net/forum/s...ead.php?t=6108

And then, China (a scary world superpower) said that everyone must banish or stop using the dollar as a world trade currency. They are blaming the U.S. for starting this "economic collapse." They are advising the Europeans to get together with them to start trading with their own currencies....no more dollars!! When this happens, we are in BIG trouble!!!
Check it out here: http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-C...49N1XX20081024

So, mmerlinn's prediction may be more accurate than you guys thought. Actually, it's more of a global market collapse than just a U.S. one. There is something massive going on here right after Friday. They are just not telling us directly.

Some additional stuff from Half Past Human. They are saying the last Mondays of October are never a good time for stocks. So we may see something on Monday as well. Remember what mmerlinn said...he said that the lowest of lows in the markets may be Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Take those words for what they are worth. HPH also talked about there might be a dollar collapse because of the China article I posted above. Also keep in mind that stock market crashes normally happen in October as well. Next week is the last week of this month....go figure.

HPH Saturday update: http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

-Phillip

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by ctophil

What I find interesting is that the day after mmerlinn's prediction (October 25), we find a lot of major, major problems in the world markets.

-Phillip

I have been closely monitoring the markets for the last three trading days. The U.S. markets seem to be 'controlled' to me, like someone is trying to prevent a collapse.

U.S. markets have been dropping in seemingly measured drops while the rest of the markets around the world have been dropping in the double digits. Overnight the Japanese markets hit a 26-year low. And our markets are marginally down??? No way.

After thinking about it, I am beginning to wonder if those billions of bailout dollars given to the banks are being used to prop up our markets. No way of finding out, but could be. The problem is that this is much much bigger than that paltry 700 billion. Sooner or later, the money propping up this market will run out, and we will have AN EVEN WORSE CORRECTION. As to when, that is anyone's guess, but the way the overseas markets are acting, it should be VERY soon.

[Exarx]

Im thinking in the same line as you mmerlinn. The big crash will come very soon indeed i think.

[elka]

halo mmarlinn,

I am absolutely sure the stock market in US is manipulated, and that trend will continue till elections.

For one reason or another, it's important for PTB to keep the illusion going till the votes are cast.

Then, this administration can also blame everything on the new president.
Better image for the son, isn't it?

[ctophil]

Originally Posted by elka

halo mmarlinn,

I am absolutely sure the stock market in US is manipulated, and that trend will continue till elections.

For one reason or another, it's important for PTB to keep the illusion going till the votes are cast.

Then, this administration can also blame everything on the new president.
Better image for the son, isn't it?

Steve Quayle talks about what may happen right after the elections here (.mp3 link): http://www.stevequayle.com/qf_october_24_2008.mp3

It's an interesting update to what is going on now, each and every day in the Great Tribulation.

-Phillip

[mmerlinn]

Well, the crash I was expecting did not happen as I expected.

Looking at the charts, we did make a yearly low on Monday, 27 October 2008, but it was a long drawn out measured low. Why? All I can think of is that maybe the billions given to the banks was used to prop up the market. No idea for sure.

On the 24th when I got up EVERYTHING overnight pointed to a MAJOR down day that day. The major indices were lock limit down, 60 for the S&P, 550 for the Dow, and I don't remember how much for the NASDAQ. And overnight, markets around the world were down down down.

Based on the last time there was such an occurance (Black Monday 1987), I was sure the markets were opening lower and going down down down as I predicted 3 months ago. Instead, the S&P and Dow open UP while the NASDAQ opened 100 points down. By the end of the day things were pretty much unchanged from Thursday. Monday saw a big sell off right on the close, making yearly lows. I had expected it to follow thru Tuesday. Nope. Opened up Tuesday and halfway through the day ROCKETED up, some 90 points on S&P and almost 900 points on the Dow.

Now the question is, "Why?" It is beginning to look like the Federal Government has decided that it is better to print more money and ARTIFICIALLY prop up the markets. If that is true, then I have to assume that the expected 2000 point drop in the Dow extrapolates into a 25% INFLATION prop. If so, when we look back in history minus the inflation we might STILL see that we had a crash on Monday. Only time will tell.

So, if the Fed did that, what can we expect? One of the biggest bull markets in history. However, if adjusted for the expected inflation, it will be one of the biggest bear markets in history.

How much inflation? Don't know, but based on the 1929 market slide, I think it will require a MINIMUM of 300% PER YEAR, or 25% per MONTH. Bottom line, literal WHEELBARROWS of money for a loaf of bread.

Think it can't happen? Look at this link: (http://www.boncherry.com/blog/2008/1...he-real-crisis). This is the HERE and NOW in Zimbabwe. If what I suspect is true about the crash being inflated out of existence, THEN WHAT YOU SEE THERE IS COMING TO AMERICA. Such a scenario WILL destroy what is left of our economy - No business will be able to keep up with HOURLY changes in prices. And those that don't will go bankrupt.

So, watch the financial markets. If the current bear markets suddenly turn bullish and then seem to go up with no top in sight, dig out your wheelbarrow because you ARE going to NEED it.

[Swanny]

I was wondering what was happening, all seems to be on the up again.

[Steve_A]

Hi Swanny,

All that seems is not always the truth.

I must say although I was suprised to see the rally, I wasn't shocked.

Over the last couple of days the US government pumped another 300b in the markets to help the banks out.

What does that mean?

Well in the short term it means that the banks have more liquidity, but the underlying truth is that the first installment made a couple of weeks ago didn't do the job.

So we need to ask ourselves what will be necessary to help avoid a crisis. Pump more money into the markets? Where does the money come from?

The US government I think on Monday wanted even more money by way of a second 'stimulous' package. Where does the money come from?

We also have to take into consideration that there is an election coming up and the one big issue of the campaigns is the economy. How can the current government let the DOW collapse and the economy collapse at such a time as now, a week before the election?

We also need to understand that although the index has risen, the volume was reasonably light. What does this mean? It means one of two things. That the market as reached the bottom and there are fewer players out there, because they've all gone under, or it means that nobody is buying or selling.

If we use logic, the former can't be true, as the government is wanting to pump more money into the market to hold it up. If the market had bottomed, the government wouldn't have to do that, the 'normal' market would sort itself out, like it did in 2001.

So that leaves the second alternative where we know that Paulsen has been monitoring the markets and has been in contact with investors. I posted this fact from an article I read on Yahoo!. Does that sound like external influence?

And what will happen when that external influence is withdrawn?

We need to understand that timelines and movements are subject to change. People who give their ideas are basing their conclusions with the trend and infomation available. In a 'normal' market the American bourse would have been history a long time ago.

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by Swanny

I was wondering what was happening, all seems to be on the up again.

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by mmerlinn

Now the question is, "Why?" It is beginning to look like the Federal Government has decided that it is better to print more money and ARTIFICIALLY prop up the markets.

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?

Originally Posted by mmerlinn

If that is true, then I have to assume that the expected 2000 point drop in the Dow extrapolates into a 25% INFLATION prop.

Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

[aiwass322]

This is why math rules!!

Found this nice mathematical model (through an article on infowars.com) that can be used to predict market crashes. Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev had this theory that economies as well as many other things behave like waves. His model predicted the 1929 incident and some people say that it has predicted a commodity price crash beginning in (yes you know it ....) 2008.

Have a look:
Link to Wikipedia

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?




Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

You got my point exactly. Don't know if it is true or not, but SOMETHING is propping the markets up.

On the 27th the markets closed on their lows and on their annual lows. When market normally close like the formation seen in the S&P and the Dow, the next day the markets TANK bigtime. The nearest support on the Dow was 2000 points BELOW the close at 8000, or roughly a 25% gap to the support. That is where I got the 25% from as that is the only measure that is available at this time. In reality, it is really anyone's guess what the real number is, but whatever it is it is HUGE.

[ralok_j]

I don't think the gubmint has the funds to steer the market. I do know there was a few late trades by mutual fund companies, which will move the market.

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by ralok_j

I don't think the gubmint has the funds to steer the market. I do know there was a few late trades by mutual fund companies, which will move the market.

They don't. But they do control the printing presses. And the 700 billion bailout money (now well over 1 trillion) had to come from somewhere outside of the budget. Eventually we will know.

[Steve_A]

Hi ralok_j,

I can now confirm mmerlin and my suspicions about how the Government secretly puts money into the stock market to prop it up.

It was confirmed to me by George Green in his latest online conference, it's just that I didn't know the name of the group he mentioned.

It's called the Plunge Committee. You can read about it at these links:

http://www.gata.org/node/4462

http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007...democrats.html

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/0..._hearings.html

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?




Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi ralok_j,

I can now confirm mmerlin and my suspicions about how the Government secretly puts money into the stock market to prop it up.

It was confirmed to me by George Green in his latest online conference, it's just that I didn't know the name of the group he mentioned.

It's called the Plunge Committee. You can read about it at these links:

http://www.gata.org/node/4462

http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007...democrats.html

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/0..._hearings.html

Best regards,

Steve

Amazing! I listened to the recorded call yesterday and when he mentioned the Plunge I immediately thought about this thread. Let us see what else we can dig up on this. One thing I do find puzzling is this:

A protracted downturn could bode ill for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, whom Democrats have been trying to taint with allegiance to polices of fellow Republican Bush.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...46284420080315

[Pinktip]

It's called PPT, Plunge Protection Team

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team

[Steve_A]

Hi ralok_j,

The story from the newspaper which was written in March of this year, said that everybody recognizd the fact that the economy was going to be in trouble as the opposition was trying to put McCain on the same page as Bush.

It's ironic that the public evidence of the downturn occurred a couple of weeks before the elections. The bourse on Wall Street had to be helped to try and hide what everybody knew until after the election. Consequently, after the election, the Dow dropped nearly 10% in two days and the initial 'bailout package' is almost all gone.

We've just seen the unemployment figures come out, Ford is sending home 10% of its' white collar staff..... let the fun begin...

It's important for everyone to remember that this problem was caused a long time ago. You can mark my words. In January when things are worse, the public will think that it's Obamas' fault.

Between you and me, just a question.

Could it be that Obama was set up to be the 'fall guy'? After all, the private sector didn't help in McCains campaign, he used public funds and Obama managed to raise from the public AND big business the largest amount ever for a political campaign.

This could be worth looking out for...

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Amazing! I listened to the recorded call yesterday and when he mentioned the Plunge I immediately thought about this thread. Let us see what else we can dig up on this. One thing I do find puzzling is this:



http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...46284420080315

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi ralok_j,

The story from the newspaper which was written in March of this year, said that everybody recognizd the fact that the economy was going to be in trouble as the opposition was trying to put McCain on the same page as Bush.

It's ironic that the public evidence of the downturn occurred a couple of weeks before the elections. The bourse on Wall Street had to be helped to try and hide what everybody knew until after the election. Consequently, after the election, the Dow dropped nearly 10% in two days and the initial 'bailout package' is almost all gone.

We've just seen the unemployment figures come out, Ford is sending home 10% of its' white collar staff..... let the fun begin...

It's important for everyone to remember that this problem was caused a long time ago. You can mark my words. In January when things are worse, the public will think that it's Obamas' fault.

Between you and me, just a question.

Could it be that Obama was set up to be the 'fall guy'? After all, the private sector didn't help in McCains campaign, he used public funds and Obama managed to raise from the public AND big business the largest amount ever for a political campaign.

This could be worth looking out for...

Best regards,

Steve

Funny you throw the thought out there about Obama being the fall guy. First, let me state that I did not vote for Obama and was against a few things he was promising in his campaign. Now, with that said:

For a few weeks I believed Obama would win. Yes, he is a passionate speaker. But I also sensed that McCain appeared to given up around mid October. My belief is that McCain realized that the global economy is heading towards failure and it wouldn't matter who is in the White House because that person will be viewed as the cause.

Now, I hope I'm wrong. I seriously hope that Obama makes the right decisions to avoid a failure of our economic system. I actually feel bad for him because he is taking office during one of worst economic cycles.

[ralok_j]

Interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-qufOWDawU

[eugene_vn]

I have to agree with mmerlinn on this one - the only reasonable explanation for the October 24 event was a massive intervention by Bush's PPT (Plunge Protection Team). A glance at the recent intraday Dow levels (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...freq=7&time=18) shows that 8200 has acted as a price floor for the past couple of weeks. While it's not unusual for the Dow to consistently bounce off the same general level, when all the technical, momentum, and fundamental indicators pointed (way) down like on Oct 24 and 8200 still supported prices, it quickly took on the characteristics of a mandated level below which prices would not be allowed to fall.

Ironically, had the market been allowed to turn down hard on Oct 24, it would have quickly rallied back into the 9000-10,000 range anyway. So it's not all that unusual to be sitting at 9200 at the Thursday close. However, the price to pay for the PPT intervention is going to be (as mmerlinn suggests) an even greater devaluation of the dollar and an even deeper real bottom when the PPT finally allows the market to crash (or loses its ability to intervene further).

There is a good video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5oCPcB3Z-8 which shows the historical "real" value of the Dow (i.e. priced in ounces of gold), which is one way of peeling away the machinations of the Fed in terms of devaluing the dollar in order to make the stock market "appear" to be rising based on higher nominal values of the Dow. According to this analysis (by Robert Prechter - www.elliottwave.com), we have probably only seen around a third of the bear market that is still unfolding.

One things to look for in Friday's trading is that it appears the market may be tracing out a "head and shoulders" pattern at the 9100-9200 level. According to classical technical analysis, if prices fall below the right shoulder, they should go way, way down. With the PPT still active it's hard to know whether normal market forces will be allowed to prevail. We will see. . .