Orange UFO's

[Gingernutmonkey]

As I said I'm interested where your getting your wind speeds from... Small point but I'm interested so please indulge me? I think we are going to have to agree to disagree interms of the lantern issue, as interesting as this conversation has been.. I hope to chat again..

[Average Joe]

I never mentioned windspeed, only direction. The direction matches the direction your orb travelled. I am only using facts.

[Gingernutmonkey]

Ok so where are you getting your info from?

[Average Joe]

Try Wetterzentrale mate, there are millions of sources of current and historical data. It's not hard.

On top of that, with the recent abundant snowfalls attacking different parts of the country from different angles, I've been keeping a very close eye on developing situations, needless to say I know which way the wind was blowing over northern England, and its still fresh in the memory!

[Gingernutmonkey]

Don't get me wrong there isn't a doubt in my mind that you spend a load of time looking at wind direction, maybe you do it for a living... Tell me in your estimation what the wind speed would need to be to get one of these lanterns moving at 180kt to 200kt... Giz a shout if ya need any help workin it out I'm sure all the info will be on ya web site .. Things to consider object is made of paper and is unpowered apart from the flicker of course... I guess while ya lookin maybe ya could check the web site to find out when we last had winds of the speed reqired to achieve that speed outside the jet stream? As I said if ya need a hand give me a shout!

[Average Joe]

The one thing that you are missing is that your estimation of the object's speed, is just that, an estimation.

I'd assume a paper lantern would travel at the speed of the wind, and the direction of the wind, at the altitude it is at.

I'd assume that your estimation of height, and therefore speed, could be accurate, or it could be miles out.

[Gingernutmonkey]

More info required.... I have to admit and I should have mentioned this earlier I instruct heli and fixed wing and have done for the last 10yrs.. I'm use to as you put it estimating speed, hight and erm distance. In my first post I did mention the speed and hight and the ground covered in the time I had it in my sight.. If you combine all these elements you can make pretty good estimates. I do admit I didn't mention this was a half mile away... I would say that even an amature would be able to tell the difference between 20kt and 200kt at that distance. If I remember we were working with 15kt winds in the morning of the 26th with no sig change expected! So the puzzling thing is how did that tea light powered paper lantern get up to such speeds. Interesting I'm sure you'll agree! But I do agree with you on the wind direction I just checked my flight log NNE@15kt...

[Average Joe]

Originally Posted by Gingernutmonkey

More info required.... I have to admit and I should have mentioned this earlier I instruct heli and fixed wing and have done for the last 10yrs.. I'm use to as you put it estimating speed, hight and erm distance. In my first post I did mention the speed and hight and the ground covered in the time I had it in my sight.. If you combine all these elements you can make pretty good estimates. I do admit I didn't mention this was a half mile away... I would say that even an amature would be able to tell the difference between 20kt and 200kt at that distance. If I remember we were working with 15kt winds in the morning of the 26th with no sig change expected! So the puzzling thing is how did that tea light powered paper lantern get up to such speeds. Interesting I'm sure you'll agree! But I do agree with you on the wind direction I just checked my flight log NNE@15kt...

Are you saying you saw this object when you were flying? As you mention your flight log. Or were you observing from the ground. I suppose it is pretty irrelevant anyway.

If you don't know what you are looking at, which you have said you don't, then you cannot know its SIZE.

If you don't know its size then you do not have a point of reference to tell its height or speed from.

Maybe you were looking at a 50ft orange orb at 2,000ft and travelling at 200kts, or maybe you were looking at a 5ft orb at 200ft and 20kts.

If you were looking at say, a plane, then it'd be much easier to establish speed and height - would you agree with that?

[Gingernutmonkey]

Morning Average.. how rude of me I fell asleep but hey every day is a new day.... So many questions you have and forgive me for saying so, very few answers. But if you need more info I'm happy to oblige, as always.
The flying point you mention is not irrelevant, if I'd been minded to I could have tried to keep up with the object but as the top speed in the R44 is 110k I would have been left standing but alas I was stood on the deck in the back garden.
In my first post I mentioned I thought at first it was the police heli but as there was no noise it could not have been. Heli's mainly operate between 1k and 2k (feet). I would think the width of the beam of light from the police heli is around 5 to 10 feet dependant on distance and the angle you view it from. In my humble estimation I was looking at a glowing orb of around 10 to 15 feet, the perspective was gained by the poplar trees we have in the distance over the back garden and the scattered cloud at 4k.
As I mentioned in previous posts when you fly almost every day and deal with weather, cloud base, wind speed, air speed and ground speed you build up a knack for having a pretty good guess. I think I have provided all the information you'd need to start answering the wind speed question and how this relatively small object (Lantern) could manage the speed it was travelling.
If you have further questions then please let me know, happy to oblige as always. As an aside if I or you could not tell the difference between 200ft and 2k ft or the speed to 20kts and 200kts of an object 1/2 a mile away we would be in serious need of an eye exam or under the influence, maybe that was it after all these things do go hand in hand with the time of year and what is more likely that someone would be sober surely not.

[Average Joe]

The problem is, you do not know it was half a mile away do you? You may be good at estimating distances and speeds with helicopters, planes etc, but if this was a lantern it was 1/10th the size of a helicopter, and would be noiseless even if it was sat on your nose end.

I put to it you that it was 200ft up and doing 20kts.

Shame you didn't get a video or anything really.

[Gingernutmonkey]

Hi Average, we have reached an impasse it seems and I have to say I type this last little gem with a tinge of boredom. Stimulating debate around this topic is rare and indeed as I read through our exchanges one becomes all too aware of that fact. I have to say that the next time a see a silent orange orb, flickering across the sky I'll think of you. Then after I stop myself laughing I'll move on with my life safe in the knowledge that "I Know What I Saw". It just remains for me to wish you all the best for the new year. TTFN.

[john-d]

sigh ... lol