Old Project Avalon Forum (ARCHIVE) - View Single Post - The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine.

Jnana · 02-27-2009, 05:10 PM

My thought is simply that certain people are using the BDI, which most people have never heard of, and explaining it incorrectly, in order to make things look worse than they are. Not that things aren't bad, but there's a big difference between a 10% drop in shipping volume and a 90% drop in shipping volume. Beside, why use BDI as a proxy for shipping volume when actual shipping volume numbers are available?

The following information is primarily for finished products shipped to the US, not dry bulk goods as the BDI reports.

Ocean shipping: Port Tracker report says volumes are lowest in four years

Jeff Berman, Group News Editor -- Logistics Management, 1/20/2009 WASHINGTON—As has been the case in previous months, the economy is continuing to hinder global trade activity. This trend was once again reflected in this month’s Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail trade association, and IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial information.

The Port Tracker report noted that cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports fell for the 17th consecutive month in December, adding that 2008 was the slowest year for retail container volume since 2004’s 14 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units (TEU). Annual volume for the 2008 was estimated at 15.3 million TEU compared to 2007’s 16.5 million TEU, marking a 7.1 percent annual dip.

Looking ahead, the Port Tracker report predicts January volume at 1.16 million TEU, down 6.3 percent from January 2008; February at 1.1 million TEU, down 11.1 percent from February 2008; March at 1.17 million TEU, up 1.1 percent from March 2008; April at 1.23 million TEU, down 2.6 percent from April 2008; and May at 1.25 million TEU, down 4 percent from May 2008.

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More at the link above.

I haven't found the equivalent for bulk dry goods shipping volumes, but I expect it's out there someplace.

Yes, times are tough and companies and individuals are making adjustments. But when someone says OMG LOOK AT THIS NUMBER THAT'S DOWN 90% - PANIC!, it's time to do a little homework and see what the fuss is about.

I have no magic ball, I don't know where things will go from here. I tend to buy high and sell low, which shows how good my analysis skills are.

02-27-2009, 05:10 PM	#4
Jnana Avalon Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Indiana Posts: 653	Re: The BDI Index,(shipping) points To worldwide famine. My thought is simply that certain people are using the BDI, which most people have never heard of, and explaining it incorrectly, in order to make things look worse than they are. Not that things aren't bad, but there's a big difference between a 10% drop in shipping volume and a 90% drop in shipping volume. Beside, why use BDI as a proxy for shipping volume when actual shipping volume numbers are available? The following information is primarily for finished products shipped to the US, not dry bulk goods as the BDI reports. Ocean shipping: Port Tracker report says volumes are lowest in four years Jeff Berman, Group News Editor -- Logistics Management, 1/20/2009 WASHINGTON—As has been the case in previous months, the economy is continuing to hinder global trade activity. This trend was once again reflected in this month’s Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), a retail trade association, and IHS Global Insight, a provider of economic and financial information. The Port Tracker report noted that cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports fell for the 17th consecutive month in December, adding that 2008 was the slowest year for retail container volume since 2004’s 14 million Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units (TEU). Annual volume for the 2008 was estimated at 15.3 million TEU compared to 2007’s 16.5 million TEU, marking a 7.1 percent annual dip. Looking ahead, the Port Tracker report predicts January volume at 1.16 million TEU, down 6.3 percent from January 2008; February at 1.1 million TEU, down 11.1 percent from February 2008; March at 1.17 million TEU, up 1.1 percent from March 2008; April at 1.23 million TEU, down 2.6 percent from April 2008; and May at 1.25 million TEU, down 4 percent from May 2008. -- More at the link above. I haven't found the equivalent for bulk dry goods shipping volumes, but I expect it's out there someplace. Yes, times are tough and companies and individuals are making adjustments. But when someone says OMG LOOK AT THIS NUMBER THAT'S DOWN 90% - PANIC!, it's time to do a little homework and see what the fuss is about. I have no magic ball, I don't know where things will go from here. I tend to buy high and sell low, which shows how good my analysis skills are.